Route profile
MDW→DTW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Detroit, 228 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 55% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,687 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → DTW arrives on time 78.3% of the time; the return trip, DTW → MDW, arrives on time 80.0% of the time.
MDW → DTW spends 23.8 minutes on the ground on a 228-mile trip: 15.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 8.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at DTW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 98% of 4,023 comparable routes.
88.2% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 51.1% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to DTW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to DTW struggles most at 9 PM: 48.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 21.1 points behind the 69.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 20.7 points.
MDW to DTW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 10 AM: 93.5% arrive on time, 9.4 points ahead of the 84.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.8 points.
In January, MDW to DTW runs 7.4 points below routes of similar length, 72.1% on time to 79.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
November is kinder to MDW to DTW than to routes of similar length: 88.1% on time against 82.2%, 5.9 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.7 points.
SkyWest Airlines does better on MDW to DTW than on its routes of similar length: 82.2% on time here, 75.9% there, 6.3 points apart.
MDW to DTW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 48.8% | routes of similar length | 69.9% | −21.1 pts | 211 here, 25,087 there |
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 93.5% | routes of similar length | 84.1% | +9.4 pts | 277 here, 45,348 there |
| Month: January | 72.1% | routes of similar length | 79.5% | −7.4 pts | 412 here, 49,497 there |
| Month: November | 88.1% | routes of similar length | 82.2% | +5.9 pts | 427 here, 53,617 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 82.2% | routes of similar length | 75.9% | +6.3 pts | 2,240 here, 53,370 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 228 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → DTW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → DTW cancelled 57 of 5,687 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 100. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 82.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 121 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 57 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
47 cancellations, 82.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
5 cancellations, 8.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
5 cancellations, 8.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
57 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → DTW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
42 min late
against a median of 5 min early
Percentiles over 5,687 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DTW after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.00% of the time and diverts 0.05% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,627 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 42 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,687 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → DTW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.2% of the time, against 51.1% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 37.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 87.2% on time from 180 flights
- 8 AM: 89.2% on time from 194 flights
- 9 AM: 83.3% on time from 1,238 flights
- 10 AM: 93.5% on time from 283 flights
- 11 AM to 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 81.8% on time from 643 flights
- 2 PM: 82.9% on time from 248 flights
- 3 PM: 77.9% on time from 387 flights
- 4 PM: 70.6% on time from 212 flights
- 5 PM: 75.6% on time from 750 flights
- 6 PM: 75.9% on time from 576 flights
- 7 PM: 64.7% on time from 227 flights
- 8 PM: 72.4% on time from 252 flights
- 9 PM: 48.8% on time from 214 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → DTW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → DTW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,432 | 75.7% | 1.25% | -3 min | 6.5% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 2,255 | 82.2% | 0.62% | -8 min | 7.5% |
Southwest Airlines flew 60.3% of the 5,687 flights listed.
SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 6.5 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Chicago to Detroit
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→DTW Chicago to Detroit | 17,424 | 76.7% | 1.93% | -6 min | 54 |
| MDW→DTW this route Chicago to Detroit | 5,687 | 78.3% | 1.00% | -5 min | 68 |
MDW → DTW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 78.3% on time, against 76.7% for ORD → DTW.
Flying to DTW from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for DTW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 72.1%
- Feb: 84.9%
- Mar: 76.7%
- Apr: 83.5%
- May: 76.6%
- Jun: 69.2%
- Jul: 66.2%
- Aug: 75.2%
- Sep: 85.7%
- Oct: 86.0%
- Nov: 88.1%
- Dec: 77.8%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 21.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 60.8% from 208 flights
- August 2023: 71.4% from 226 flights
- September 2023: 80.9% from 204 flights
- October 2023: 83.2% from 214 flights
- November 2023: 86.9% from 168 flights
- December 2023: 85.1% from 162 flights
- January 2024: 67.3% from 171 flights
- February 2024: 88.2% from 161 flights
- March 2024: 77.8% from 176 flights
- April 2024: 81.4% from 172 flights
- May 2024: 74.0% from 177 flights
- June 2024: 69.4% from 173 flights
- July 2024: 69.4% from 175 flights
- August 2024: 78.8% from 184 flights
- September 2024: 89.9% from 179 flights
- October 2024: 90.1% from 182 flights
- November 2024: 88.0% from 167 flights
- December 2024: 76.8% from 166 flights
- January 2025: 73.5% from 172 flights
- February 2025: 87.2% from 158 flights
- March 2025: 79.3% from 176 flights
- April 2025: 87.9% from 174 flights
- May 2025: 81.7% from 180 flights
- June 2025: 75.5% from 155 flights
- July 2025: 67.3% from 153 flights
- August 2025: 76.3% from 159 flights
- September 2025: 87.3% from 150 flights
- October 2025: 85.1% from 154 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (99)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (86)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (80)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (89)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (86)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (87)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (86)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (89)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.7% against 81.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,687 MDW → DTW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed