Route profile
LGA→BUF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Buffalo, 292 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 29% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,852 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
LGA → BUF arrives on time 81.2% of the time; the return trip, BUF → LGA, arrives on time 83.1% of the time.
LGA → BUF spends 31.3 minutes on the ground on a 292-mile trip: 23.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at LGA and 7.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at BUF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where LGA to BUF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
LGA to BUF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 10 PM: 84.2% arrive on time, 13.9 points ahead of the 70.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.5 points.
LGA to BUF struggles most at 9 AM: 82.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 4.8 points behind the 87.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
LGA to BUF holds up on Fridays better than routes of similar length do: 81.4% on time to their 76.5%, a 4.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5.2 points.
August is kinder to LGA to BUF than to routes of similar length: 85.3% on time against 78.7%, 6.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.8 points.
Republic Airways’ flights on LGA to BUF arrive on time 79.5% of the time, 4.5 points below the 84.0% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 2.6 points.
LGA to BUF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 84.2% | routes of similar length | 70.3% | +13.9 pts | 120 here, 22,934 there |
| Hour: 9 AM departures | 82.2% | routes of similar length | 87.0% | −4.8 pts | 428 here, 42,105 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 81.4% | routes of similar length | 76.5% | +4.9 pts | 861 here, 117,464 there |
| Month: August | 85.3% | routes of similar length | 78.7% | +6.6 pts | 545 here, 65,394 there |
| Airline: Republic Airways | 79.5% | routes of similar length | 84.0% | −4.5 pts | 4,135 here, 79,206 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 292 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why LGA → BUF flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
LGA → BUF cancelled 272 of 5,852 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 22. The reason filed most often was the air traffic system, 42.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 50 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 272 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
116 cancellations, 42.6% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
115 cancellations, 42.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
41 cancellations, 15.1% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
272 coded cancellations were recorded on LGA → BUF; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
41 min late
against a median of 11 min early
Percentiles over 5,852 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BUF after arriving from LGA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 30% | High risk |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 4.65% of the time and diverts 0.12% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,573 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 41 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,852 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
LGA → BUF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.9% of the time, against 76.3% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 13.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 87.8% on time from 133 flights
- 8 AM: 90.4% on time from 596 flights
- 9 AM: 82.2% on time from 441 flights
- 10 AM: 84.8% on time from 180 flights
- 11 AM: 86.2% on time from 257 flights
- 12 PM: 89.2% on time from 490 flights
- 1 PM: 76.5% on time from 352 flights
- 2 PM: 87.3% on time from 413 flights
- 3 PM: 76.8% on time from 422 flights
- 4 PM: 75.9% on time from 734 flights
- 5 PM to 7 PM: too few flights to score
- 8 PM: 72.3% on time from 241 flights
- 9 PM: 75.5% on time from 1,229 flights
- 10 PM: 84.2% on time from 125 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why LGA → BUF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for LGA → BUF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on LGA → BUF, at 45.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.9% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 76.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 4,357 | 79.5% | 4.98% | -10 min | 7.7% |
| Endeavor Air | 1,360 | 87.0% | 3.82% | -16 min | 4.8% |
Republic Airways flew 76.2% of the 5,717 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.98% of its flights here against 3.82% for Endeavor Air.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 7.5 percentage points more often than Republic Airways on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.4%
- Feb: 78.6%
- Mar: 78.9%
- Apr: 82.1%
- May: 79.8%
- Jun: 74.0%
- Jul: 76.4%
- Aug: 85.3%
- Sep: 89.0%
- Oct: 86.4%
- Nov: 84.5%
- Dec: 77.6%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 15.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 79.9% from 205 flights
- August 2023: 90.2% from 219 flights
- September 2023: 83.4% from 203 flights
- October 2023: 94.9% from 197 flights
- November 2023: 91.3% from 160 flights
- December 2023: 89.0% from 137 flights
- January 2024: 79.3% from 144 flights
- February 2024: 84.0% from 154 flights
- March 2024: 85.5% from 161 flights
- April 2024: 88.8% from 164 flights
- May 2024: 84.2% from 170 flights
- June 2024: 79.1% from 160 flights
- July 2024: 76.9% from 170 flights
- August 2024: 78.1% from 167 flights
- September 2024: 94.9% from 178 flights
- October 2024: 95.8% from 189 flights
- November 2024: 90.9% from 175 flights
- December 2024: 79.4% from 161 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (98)
- March 2025: 79.7% from 130 flights
- April 2025: 82.8% from 134 flights
- May 2025: 76.8% from 159 flights
- June 2025: 62.3% from 181 flights
- July 2025: 74.6% from 170 flights
- August 2025: 85.6% from 183 flights
- September 2025: 88.7% from 190 flights
- October 2025: 66.7% from 180 flights
- November 2025: 68.4% from 144 flights
- December 2025: 62.2% from 132 flights
- January 2026: 77.0% from 145 flights
- February 2026: 79.1% from 142 flights
- March 2026: 70.1% from 152 flights
- April 2026: 72.8% from 126 flights
- May 2026: 78.0% from 154 flights
- June 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (93)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.8% against 80.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,852 LGA → BUF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed