Route profile
EWR→BUF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Newark to Buffalo, 282 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 17% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,041 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
EWR → BUF arrives on time 79.0% of the time; the return trip, BUF → EWR, arrives on time 87.8% of the time, an 8.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
EWR → BUF spends 30.6 minutes on the ground on a 282-mile trip: 23.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 6.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at BUF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
The airline matters unusually much on this route, a wider carrier-to-carrier gap than 98% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Republic Airways arrived on time 88.0% of the time, against 63.6% for United Airlines, flying the exact same route.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where EWR to BUF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
EWR to BUF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 91.6% arrive on time, 15.5 points ahead of the 76.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 18.9 points.
EWR to BUF struggles most at 10 PM: 60.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.5 points behind the 70.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.1 points.
Monday is the day EWR to BUF slips furthest against routes of similar length, 73.7% on time where they average 78.6%, 4.9 points lower.
In November, EWR to BUF runs 5.4 points below routes of similar length, 78.7% on time to 84.1%.
United Airlines’ flights on EWR to BUF arrive on time 63.6% of the time, 16.2 points below the 79.8% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 16.3 points.
EWR to BUF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 91.6% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | +15.5 pts | 143 here, 37,245 there |
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 60.6% | routes of similar length | 70.1% | −9.5 pts | 249 here, 20,411 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 73.7% | routes of similar length | 78.6% | −4.9 pts | 297 here, 102,206 there |
| Month: November | 78.7% | routes of similar length | 84.1% | −5.4 pts | 202 here, 54,482 there |
| Airline: United Airlines | 63.6% | routes of similar length | 79.8% | −16.2 pts | 720 here, 49,390 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 282 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why EWR → BUF flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
EWR → BUF cancelled 94 of 2,041 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 22. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 62.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 35 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 94 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
59 cancellations, 62.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
28 cancellations, 29.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
7 cancellations, 7.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
94 coded cancellations were recorded on EWR → BUF; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
52 min late
against a median of 10 min early
EWR → BUF has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 10 min early, but the worst tenth are 62 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 2,041 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BUF after arriving from EWR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 4.61% of the time and diverts 0.00% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,947 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 52 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,041 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
EWR → BUF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 95.8% of the time, against 66.4% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 29.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 95.6% on time from 160 flights
- 9 AM: 86.8% on time from 211 flights
- 10 AM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 90.6% on time from 149 flights
- 3 PM: 91.6% on time from 145 flights
- 4 PM: 86.2% on time from 216 flights
- 5 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 68.8% on time from 639 flights
- 10 PM: 60.6% on time from 262 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why EWR → BUF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → BUF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on EWR → BUF, at 52.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 95.8% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 66.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 1,294 | 88.0% | 5.18% | -12 min | 3.6% |
| United Airlines | 747 | 63.6% | 3.61% | -1 min | 17.4% |
Republic Airways flew 63.4% of the 2,041 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 5.18% of its flights here against 3.61% for United Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 24.4 percentage points more often than United Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 7.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan to Feb: no data
- Mar: 83.3%
- Apr: 78.7%
- May: 80.8%
- Jun: 79.6%
- Jul: 69.6%
- Aug: 78.6%
- Sep: 79.6%
- Oct: 83.3%
- Nov: 78.7%
- Dec: 78.5%
July is historically the weakest month and March the strongest, a spread of 13.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 81.0% against 72.3% in the 12 months before — improving by 8.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,041 EWR → BUF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed