Route profile
BWI→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Baltimore to Tampa, 842 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 35% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,240 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BWI → TPA arrives on time 77.1% of the time; the return trip, TPA → BWI, arrives on time 80.1% of the time, a 3.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
BWI → TPA spends 20.4 minutes on the ground on an 842-mile trip: 15.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BWI and 5.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 97% of 5,368 comparable routes.
79.4% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 79.2% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BWI to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BWI to TPA struggles most at 5 PM: 63.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 4.6 points behind the 67.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
BWI to TPA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 10 AM: 87.3% arrive on time, 4.1 points ahead of the 83.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.6 points.
In July, BWI to TPA runs 4.9 points below routes of similar length, 63.2% on time to 68.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.5 points.
June is kinder to BWI to TPA than to routes of similar length: 75.8% on time against 71.7%, 4.1 points better.
Spirit Airlines does better on BWI to TPA than on its routes of similar length: 83.3% on time here, 74.5% there, 8.8 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 8.1 points.
BWI to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 63.1% | routes of similar length | 67.7% | −4.6 pts | 536 here, 151,978 there |
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 87.3% | routes of similar length | 83.2% | +4.1 pts | 624 here, 153,910 there |
| Month: July | 63.2% | routes of similar length | 68.1% | −4.9 pts | 1,000 here, 282,291 there |
| Month: June | 75.8% | routes of similar length | 71.7% | +4.1 pts | 737 here, 210,476 there |
| Airline: Spirit Airlines | 83.3% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +8.8 pts | 616 here, 114,609 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 842 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BWI → TPA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BWI → TPA cancelled 183 of 9,240 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 50. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 69.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 72 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 183 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
128 cancellations, 69.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
28 cancellations, 15.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
27 cancellations, 14.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
183 coded cancellations were recorded on BWI → TPA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
46 min late
against a median of 5 min early
Percentiles over 9,240 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from BWI.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.98% of the time and diverts 0.32% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,027 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 46 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,240 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BWI → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.4% of the time, against 60.6% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 28.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 93.0% on time from 332 flights
- 6 AM: 91.6% on time from 1,001 flights
- 7 AM: 90.2% on time from 504 flights
- 8 AM: 84.9% on time from 842 flights
- 9 AM: 84.3% on time from 402 flights
- 10 AM: 87.3% on time from 636 flights
- 11 AM: 80.5% on time from 257 flights
- 12 PM: 79.6% on time from 227 flights
- 1 PM: 75.4% on time from 755 flights
- 2 PM: 72.7% on time from 579 flights
- 3 PM: 72.3% on time from 432 flights
- 4 PM: 71.8% on time from 460 flights
- 5 PM: 63.1% on time from 552 flights
- 6 PM: 66.7% on time from 665 flights
- 7 PM: 67.1% on time from 433 flights
- 8 PM: 64.3% on time from 686 flights
- 9 PM: 63.5% on time from 427 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why BWI → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BWI → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BWI → TPA, at 39.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.4% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 60.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 7,702 | 77.2% | 1.91% | -5 min | 7.0% |
| Frontier Airlines | 903 | 71.7% | 2.21% | -4 min | 13.6% |
| Spirit Airlines | 635 | 83.3% | 2.52% | -8 min | 4.9% |
Southwest Airlines flew 83.4% of the 9,240 flights listed.
Spirit Airlines arrived on time 11.6 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.3%
- Feb: 83.8%
- Mar: 76.0%
- Apr: 78.2%
- May: 74.7%
- Jun: 75.8%
- Jul: 63.2%
- Aug: 74.4%
- Sep: 84.4%
- Oct: 82.4%
- Nov: 86.0%
- Dec: 76.1%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 22.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 56.9% from 266 flights
- August 2023: 73.0% from 240 flights
- September 2023: 78.7% from 202 flights
- October 2023: 80.2% from 255 flights
- November 2023: 81.0% from 289 flights
- December 2023: 77.7% from 304 flights
- January 2024: 70.2% from 270 flights
- February 2024: 87.7% from 253 flights
- March 2024: 71.4% from 288 flights
- April 2024: 78.1% from 284 flights
- May 2024: 74.6% from 291 flights
- June 2024: 75.4% from 285 flights
- July 2024: 53.9% from 291 flights
- August 2024: 71.1% from 267 flights
- September 2024: 84.8% from 252 flights
- October 2024: 87.2% from 253 flights
- November 2024: 94.3% from 264 flights
- December 2024: 78.8% from 261 flights
- January 2025: 79.6% from 219 flights
- February 2025: 77.1% from 207 flights
- March 2025: 80.6% from 270 flights
- April 2025: 78.5% from 281 flights
- May 2025: 73.0% from 260 flights
- June 2025: 75.0% from 255 flights
- July 2025: 70.1% from 260 flights
- August 2025: 79.5% from 230 flights
- September 2025: 89.5% from 200 flights
- October 2025: 80.0% from 212 flights
- November 2025: 82.2% from 203 flights
- December 2025: 70.2% from 210 flights
- January 2026: 84.0% from 207 flights
- February 2026: 85.6% from 205 flights
- March 2026: 76.5% from 263 flights
- April 2026: 78.1% from 266 flights
- May 2026: 76.7% from 255 flights
- June 2026: 77.4% from 210 flights
- July 2026: 75.9% from 212 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.4% against 79.2% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,240 BWI → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed