Route profile
BWI→SFO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Baltimore to San Francisco, 2,457 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 49% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,291 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BWI → SFO arrives on time 77.1% of the time; the return trip, SFO → BWI, arrives on time 83.4% of the time, a 6.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair. BWI → SFO also cancels 1.66% of flights, against 0.65% for SFO → BWI.
BWI → SFO spends 24.6 minutes on the ground on a 2,457-mile trip: 16.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BWI and 8.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at SFO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 99% of 3,357 comparable routes.
89.3% on time in a typical October, against 59.7% in June.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BWI to SFO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
In June, BWI to SFO runs 14.6 points below routes of similar length, 59.7% on time to 74.3%. Against all other routes the gap is 13 points.
March is kinder to BWI to SFO than to routes of similar length: 86.8% on time against 79.1%, 7.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.9 points.
BWI to SFO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month: June | 59.7% | routes of similar length | 74.3% | −14.6 pts | 221 here, 90,783 there |
| Month: March | 86.8% | routes of similar length | 79.1% | +7.7 pts | 152 here, 81,418 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,457 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
40 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 2,291 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SFO after arriving from BWI.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.66% of the time and diverts 0.31% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,246 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 40 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,291 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BWI → SFO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.6% of the time, against 66.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 22.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.4% on time from 635 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 87.7% on time from 263 flights
- 9 AM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 69.0% on time from 619 flights
- 7 PM: 65.4% on time from 131 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why BWI → SFO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BWI → SFO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 1,869 | 81.8% | 1.87% | -9 min | 4.9% |
| Southwest Airlines | 422 | 56.4% | 0.71% | 9 min | 12.5% |
United Airlines flew 81.6% of the 2,291 flights listed. United Airlines cancelled 1.87% of its flights here against 0.71% for Southwest Airlines.
United Airlines arrived on time 25.4 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 8.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.2%
- Feb: 78.0%
- Mar: 86.8%
- Apr: 77.2%
- May: 71.0%
- Jun: 59.7%
- Jul: 66.2%
- Aug: 76.9%
- Sep: 84.4%
- Oct: 89.3%
- Nov: 87.0%
- Dec: 76.3%
June is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 29.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.7% against 84.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 14.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,291 BWI → SFO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed