Route profile
BWI→SAN
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Baltimore to San Diego, 2,295 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 45% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,033 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BWI → SAN arrives on time 74.0% of the time; the return trip, SAN → BWI, arrives on time 78.7% of the time, a 4.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
BWI → SAN spends 20.1 minutes on the ground on a 2,295-mile trip: 15.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BWI and 4.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at SAN.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.
75.6% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 75.7% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BWI to SAN differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BWI to SAN struggles most at 4 PM: 61.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.2 points behind the 74.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.1 points.
Saturday is the day BWI to SAN slips furthest against routes of similar length, 71.6% on time where they average 79.0%, 7.4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
In April, BWI to SAN runs 12.4 points below routes of similar length, 68.8% on time to 81.2%. Against all other routes the gap is 11.1 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on BWI to SAN arrive on time 73.6% of the time, 3.4 points below the 77.0% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 3.8 points.
BWI to SAN against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 61.6% | routes of similar length | 74.8% | −13.2 pts | 146 here, 58,792 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 71.6% | routes of similar length | 79.0% | −7.4 pts | 359 here, 157,287 there |
| Month: April | 68.8% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | −12.4 pts | 260 here, 93,112 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 73.6% | routes of similar length | 77.0% | −3.4 pts | 2,873 here, 66,040 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,295 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
44 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 3,033 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SAN after arriving from BWI.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 46% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 6.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.09% of the time and diverts 0.59% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,982 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 44 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,033 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BWI → SAN flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.4% of the time, against 57.5% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 28.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 86.4% on time from 570 flights
- 7 AM: 87.2% on time from 288 flights
- 8 AM: 85.2% on time from 163 flights
- 9 AM: 81.5% on time from 274 flights
- 10 AM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 61.9% on time from 142 flights
- 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 61.6% on time from 148 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 73.5% on time from 170 flights
- 7 PM: 64.1% on time from 359 flights
- 8 PM: 66.1% on time from 334 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why BWI → SAN runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BWI → SAN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,924 | 73.6% | 1.13% | -1 min | 6.6% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 83.5%
- Feb: 75.6%
- Mar: 79.0%
- Apr: 68.8%
- May: 71.9%
- Jun: 64.1%
- Jul: 63.2%
- Aug: 79.2%
- Sep: 74.6%
- Oct: 76.5%
- Nov: 87.4%
- Dec: 75.9%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 24.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (60)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (62)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (63)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (59)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (62)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (68)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (55)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (48)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (76)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (82)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (101)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- July 2024: 57.5% from 120 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (64)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (56)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (61)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (59)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (54)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (75)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (76)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (82)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (82)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (101)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (102)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (80)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (103)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (106)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (103)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (106)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.6% against 75.7% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,033 BWI → SAN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed