Route profile
BUR→SMF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Burbank to Sacramento, 358 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 91% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,479 flights. How this is calculated
BUR → SMF arrives on time 86.4% of the time; the return trip, SMF → BUR, arrives on time 85.0% of the time.
BUR → SMF spends 18.3 minutes on the ground on a 358-mile trip: 13.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BUR and 4.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route holds up about the same all year, a steadier seasonal pattern than 97% of 3,357 comparable routes.
90.4% on time in its best month (February) against 81.8% in its worst (October).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BUR to SMF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BUR to SMF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 5 PM: 84.4% arrive on time, 13.2 points ahead of the 71.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.6 points.
BUR to SMF holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 90.5% on time to their 81.6%, a 8.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 11.4 points.
July is kinder to BUR to SMF than to routes of similar length: 86.3% on time against 71.8%, 14.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 16.6 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on BUR to SMF than on its routes of similar length: 86.6% on time here, 80.4% there, 6.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 9.2 points.
BUR to SMF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 84.4% | routes of similar length | 71.2% | +13.2 pts | 550 here, 92,178 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 90.5% | routes of similar length | 81.6% | +8.9 pts | 779 here, 167,206 there |
| Month: July | 86.3% | routes of similar length | 71.8% | +14.5 pts | 912 here, 155,631 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 86.6% | routes of similar length | 80.4% | +6.2 pts | 8,238 here, 487,803 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 358 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BUR → SMF flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BUR → SMF cancelled 120 of 8,479 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 71. The reason filed most often was the airline, 58.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 121 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 120 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
70 cancellations, 58.3% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
45 cancellations, 37.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
5 cancellations, 4.2% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
120 coded cancellations were recorded on BUR → SMF; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
23 min late
against a median of 10 min early
Percentiles over 8,479 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SMF after arriving from BUR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 25% | High risk |
| 45 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 7.8% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.5% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.42% of the time and diverts 0.02% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,357 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 23 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,479 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BUR → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 96.4% of the time, against 78.8% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 17.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 97.3% on time from 985 flights
- 8 AM: 95.2% on time from 750 flights
- 9 AM: 93.1% on time from 556 flights
- 10 AM: 92.2% on time from 552 flights
- 11 AM: 91.5% on time from 386 flights
- 12 PM: 86.5% on time from 652 flights
- 1 PM: 81.9% on time from 438 flights
- 2 PM: 82.1% on time from 549 flights
- 3 PM: 84.5% on time from 507 flights
- 4 PM: 79.3% on time from 578 flights
- 5 PM: 84.4% on time from 556 flights
- 6 PM: 81.7% on time from 610 flights
- 7 PM: 78.8% on time from 690 flights
- 8 PM: 76.2% on time from 663 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why BUR → SMF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BUR → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BUR → SMF, at 75.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 96.4% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 78.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8,360 | 86.6% | 1.44% | -10 min | 3.5% |
Other ways to fly Los Angeles to Sacramento
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAX→SMF Los Angeles to Sacramento | 16,587 | 86.1% | 0.27% | -9 min | 85 |
| BUR→SMF this route Burbank to Sacramento | 8,479 | 86.4% | 1.42% | -10 min | 83 |
Flying to SMF from the Los Angeles area? Compare BUR, LAX, SNA, ONT for SMF, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 90.1%
- Feb: 90.4%
- Mar: 89.4%
- Apr: 87.5%
- May: 84.1%
- Jun: 84.3%
- Jul: 86.3%
- Aug: 85.9%
- Sep: 87.5%
- Oct: 81.8%
- Nov: 85.9%
- Dec: 85.8%
October is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 8.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 80.9% from 253 flights
- August 2023: 84.0% from 259 flights
- September 2023: 88.8% from 251 flights
- October 2023: 84.6% from 243 flights
- November 2023: 86.6% from 248 flights
- December 2023: 87.5% from 260 flights
- January 2024: 87.3% from 216 flights
- February 2024: 87.6% from 190 flights
- March 2024: 88.7% from 224 flights
- April 2024: 85.7% from 218 flights
- May 2024: 82.2% from 220 flights
- June 2024: 86.0% from 226 flights
- July 2024: 88.5% from 230 flights
- August 2024: 86.2% from 227 flights
- September 2024: 84.6% from 271 flights
- October 2024: 82.7% from 287 flights
- November 2024: 88.8% from 234 flights
- December 2024: 84.1% from 216 flights
- January 2025: 88.9% from 194 flights
- February 2025: 93.1% from 190 flights
- March 2025: 88.0% from 240 flights
- April 2025: 89.8% from 245 flights
- May 2025: 84.0% from 251 flights
- June 2025: 87.7% from 238 flights
- July 2025: 88.8% from 239 flights
- August 2025: 87.7% from 231 flights
- September 2025: 89.4% from 228 flights
- October 2025: 78.0% from 242 flights
- November 2025: 82.3% from 235 flights
- December 2025: 85.4% from 228 flights
- January 2026: 94.6% from 187 flights
- February 2026: 90.4% from 182 flights
- March 2026: 91.7% from 223 flights
- April 2026: 86.8% from 223 flights
- May 2026: 86.2% from 225 flights
- June 2026: 78.5% from 201 flights
- July 2026: 87.6% from 204 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 86.4% against 87.0% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,479 BUR → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed