Route profile
AUS→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Austin to Minneapolis, 1,042 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 55% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,774 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
AUS → MSP arrives on time 79.1% of the time; the return trip, MSP → AUS, arrives on time 78.9% of the time.
AUS → MSP spends 22.4 minutes on the ground on a 1,042-mile trip: 16.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at AUS and 6.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where AUS to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
AUS to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 76.1% arrive on time, 10.1 points ahead of the 66.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
AUS to MSP struggles most at 2 PM: 68.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 4.8 points behind the 72.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.5 points.
AUS to MSP holds up on Wednesdays better than routes of similar length do: 84.1% on time to their 79.4%, a 4.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 3.3 points.
January is kinder to AUS to MSP than to routes of similar length: 85.1% on time against 76.9%, 8.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on AUS to MSP arrive on time 71.2% of the time, 4.1 points below the 75.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
AUS to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 76.1% | routes of similar length | 66.0% | +10.1 pts | 213 here, 181,138 there |
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 68.1% | routes of similar length | 72.9% | −4.8 pts | 621 here, 174,135 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 84.1% | routes of similar length | 79.4% | +4.7 pts | 692 here, 393,624 there |
| Month: January | 85.1% | routes of similar length | 76.9% | +8.2 pts | 322 here, 221,776 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 71.2% | routes of similar length | 75.3% | −4.1 pts | 1,106 here, 640,882 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,042 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
45 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 4,774 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from AUS.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.44% of the time and diverts 0.17% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,745 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 45 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,774 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
AUS → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.0% of the time, against 70.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 20.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.0% on time from 1,127 flights
- 7 AM to 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 85.6% on time from 363 flights
- 10 AM: 82.2% on time from 157 flights
- 11 AM: 84.0% on time from 588 flights
- 12 PM: 81.0% on time from 232 flights
- 1 PM: 75.9% on time from 200 flights
- 2 PM: 68.1% on time from 623 flights
- 3 PM: 71.6% on time from 221 flights
- 4 PM: 66.5% on time from 265 flights
- 5 PM: 77.1% on time from 263 flights
- 6 PM: 68.0% on time from 481 flights
- 7 PM: 76.1% on time from 213 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why AUS → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for AUS → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,236 | 81.1% | 0.62% | -8 min | 8.2% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,107 | 71.2% | 0.00% | 0 min | 6.8% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 430 | 84.8% | 0.23% | -9 min | 6.8% |
Delta Air Lines flew 67.8% of the 4,773 flights listed.
SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 13.6 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL1242 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 91.8% of the time, 19.0 points more often than DL1042 (4:00 PM) at 72.8%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.1%
- Feb: 84.9%
- Mar: 77.4%
- Apr: 81.3%
- May: 76.5%
- Jun: 67.6%
- Jul: 71.2%
- Aug: 79.9%
- Sep: 85.8%
- Oct: 84.6%
- Nov: 81.4%
- Dec: 79.9%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 18.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 73.7% from 133 flights
- August 2023: 87.7% from 147 flights
- September 2023: 75.2% from 143 flights
- October 2023: 86.5% from 133 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (117)
- December 2023: 90.8% from 120 flights
- January 2024: too few flights to score (104)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- June 2024: 64.0% from 125 flights
- July 2024: 65.6% from 127 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- October 2024: 90.2% from 123 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- December 2024: 81.7% from 131 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (102)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- April 2025: 82.0% from 133 flights
- May 2025: 74.7% from 147 flights
- June 2025: 64.6% from 147 flights
- July 2025: 68.9% from 150 flights
- August 2025: 73.6% from 140 flights
- September 2025: 90.8% from 133 flights
- October 2025: 78.6% from 159 flights
- November 2025: 68.7% from 136 flights
- December 2025: 69.4% from 147 flights
- January 2026: too few flights to score (115)
- February 2026: 83.1% from 124 flights
- March 2026: 70.9% from 145 flights
- April 2026: 83.8% from 142 flights
- May 2026: 80.6% from 144 flights
- June 2026: 74.1% from 143 flights
- July 2026: 76.0% from 147 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.2% against 80.3% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,774 AUS → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed