Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at TUS
Tucson International Airport, Tucson, AZ. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against TUS’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in one and worse in two of the three years. The gap ran from 3.8 points below usual in 2025 to 5.0 points above usual in 2023.
0.84% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 0.81% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in one of the three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 604 | 90.7% | 85.7% | +5.0better | 0.00% | 0.77% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 660 | 82.0% | 85.7% | −3.7worse | 1.36% | 0.83% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 634 | 81.6% | 85.4% | −3.8worse | 1.10% | 0.84% |
| All years3 windows | 1,898 | 84.7% | 85.6% | −0.9about the same | 0.84% | 0.81% |
Day by day
No single day has enough flights in one year to compare the years, so the days are ranked on all three years pooled: December 28 ran lowest (76.8% on time, 9.5 points below usual) and December 30 highest (92.6%, 6.6 points above usual). This cannot say whether the same day was worst or best in each year.
Christmas Day itself carried 15% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 90.1% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 70%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 4% more | 74.7% | 84.7% | −10.0worse | 0.57% | — · — · — |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 9% more | 77.7% | 84.8% | −7.1worse | 0.57% | — · — · — |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 13% more | 80.0% | 86.3% | −6.3worse | 0.52% | — · — · — |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 9% more | 80.0% | 83.6% | −3.6about the same | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 17% more | 85.6% | 86.0% | −0.4about the same | 0.53% | — · — · — |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 18% fewer | 84.8% | 86.6% | −1.8about the same | 0.75% | — · — · — |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | 15% fewer | 90.1% | 86.2% | +3.9about the same | 1.40% | — · — · — |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | 13% more | 83.5% | 84.9% | −1.4about the same | 3.17% | — · — · — |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 14% more | 79.9% | 84.8% | −4.9about the same | 0.54% | — · — · — |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | 13% more | 76.8% | 86.3% | −9.5worse | 0.52% | — · — · — |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 9% more | 76.3% | 83.6% | −7.3worse | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 17% more | 92.6% | 86.0% | +6.6better | 0.53% | — · — · — |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | 13% fewer | 91.5% | 86.6% | +4.9better | 0.70% | — · — · — |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 5% fewer | 87.3% | 86.2% | +1.1about the same | 1.25% | — · — · — |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 11% more | 86.6% | 84.9% | +1.7about the same | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 8% more | 84.7% | 84.8% | −0.1about the same | 2.30% | — · — · — |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 4% more | 83.5% | 86.3% | −2.8about the same | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | about the same | 83.9% | 83.7% | +0.2about the same | 0.57% | — · — · — |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at TUS were Tuesday, Dec 26, 2023 (61 departures), Wednesday, Dec 27, 2023 (61 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (66 departures), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (66 departures), Tuesday, Dec 23, 2025 (65 departures), and Sunday, Dec 28, 2025 (66 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 89.9%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 77.9%.
The holiday cost flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (1.8 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM the least (0.3 points below).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 89.9% | 90.2% | −0.3about the same | — | — | — |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 87.3% | 87.6% | −0.3about the same | — | — | — |
| 12–3 PM | 82.7% | 83.9% | −1.2about the same | — | — | — |
| 3–6 PM | 78.5% | 80.3% | −1.8about the same | — | — | — |
| 6–9 PM | 77.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 PM–5 AM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
TUS beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts TUS’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether TUS did better or worse than the network.
| Year | TUS on time | TUS, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 90.7% | +5.0 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 82.0% | −3.7 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 81.6% | −3.8 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at TUS, or the network view.