Holiday travel
July 4 at TPA
Tampa International Airport, Tampa, FL. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against TPA’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in three and worse in one of the four years. The gap ran from 6.6 points below usual in 2025 to 12.3 points above usual in 2024.
1.02% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 1.76% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in three of the four years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 1,014 | 77.5% | 70.1% | +7.4better | 0.89% | 1.84% |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 953 | 82.2% | 69.9% | +12.3better | 0.31% | 1.70% |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 1,010 | 64.3% | 70.9% | −6.6worse | 1.88% | 1.65% |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 943 | 74.7% | 69.6% | +5.1better | 0.95% | 1.86% |
| All years4 windows | 3,920 | 74.6% | 70.1% | +4.5better | 1.02% | 1.76% |
Day by day
July 2 (Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 69.1% on time, 1.0 point below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
July 4 was the best day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 85.6% on time, 14.9 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
July 4 itself carried 19% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 85.6% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 30%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 2% fewer | 69.3% | 69.2% | +0.1about the same | 1.11% | — · 58.6 · 69.4 · 80.1 |
| Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | about the same | 61.2% | 68.8% | −7.6worse | 0.78% | — · 58.3 · 50.2 · 76.8 |
| Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | about the same | 67.2% | 68.6% | −1.4about the same | 2.28% | — · 61.0 · 58.3 · 83.5 |
| Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed | about the same | 73.0% | 70.9% | +2.1about the same | 1.94% | 70.3 · 78.5 · 69.6 · 74.1 |
| Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu | 2% fewer | 69.1% | 70.1% | −1.0about the same | 0.99% | 75.6 · 80.5 · 39.7 · 79.7 |
| Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri | 3% fewer | 71.0% | 69.3% | +1.7about the same | 0.88% | 80.6 · 83.0 · 49.3 · 73.7 |
| July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat | 19% fewer | 85.6% | 70.7% | +14.9better | 0.44% | 84.8 · 90.7 · 86.4 · 80.4 |
| Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun | 4% fewer | 75.9% | 69.8% | +6.1better | 0.74% | 78.6 · 79.5 · 78.7 · 67.0 |
| Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | about the same | 69.9% | 69.1% | +0.8about the same | 1.17% | 79.1 · 67.7 · 69.1 · 63.5 |
| Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | about the same | 69.7% | 68.5% | +1.2about the same | 1.08% | 57.0 · 74.2 · 72.8 · 74.5 |
| Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the window | 2% more | 65.7% | 70.9% | −5.2worse | 1.90% | 49.1 · 61.6 · 73.3 · 81.4 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at TPA were Saturday, Jul 1, 2023 (234 departures), Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (214 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (203 departures), Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024 (200 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (220 departures), Saturday, Jul 5, 2025 (217 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (197 departures), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (205 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 88.1%, still 1.4 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 56.0%, still 7.9 points above usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+8.7 points) and those leaving 5–9 AM did worst (−1.4 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 84.1%, still 5.8 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 55.8%, still 7.4 points above usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+9.1 points) and those leaving 5–9 AM did worst (−5.8 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 88.1% | 89.5% | −1.4about the same | 84.1% | 89.9% | −5.8worse |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 84.7% | 81.3% | +3.4better | 83.4% | 80.7% | +2.7about the same |
| 12–3 PM | 72.7% | 68.7% | +4.0better | 68.8% | 68.6% | +0.2about the same |
| 3–6 PM | 62.0% | 53.3% | +8.7better | 62.7% | 53.6% | +9.1better |
| 6–9 PM | 56.0% | 48.1% | +7.9better | 55.8% | 48.4% | +7.4better |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 58.0% | 51.0% | +7.0about the same | — | — | — |
TPA beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts TPA’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether TPA did better or worse than the network.
| Year | TPA on time | TPA, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 77.5% | +7.4 | 73.9% | +2.9 |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 82.2% | +12.3 | 82.2% | +11.7 |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 64.3% | −6.6 | 73.5% | +2.3 |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 74.7% | +5.1 | 73.1% | +3.2 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at TPA, or the network view.