Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at TPA
Tampa International Airport, Tampa, FL. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against TPA’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were about the same in one and worse in two of the three years. The gap ran from 11.7 points below usual in 2025 to 1.4 points below usual in 2023.
1.15% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 1.36% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years and higher in one.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 2,680 | 79.5% | 80.9% | −1.4about the same | 0.67% | 1.42% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 2,559 | 72.4% | 82.1% | −9.7worse | 0.59% | 1.30% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 2,568 | 70.4% | 82.1% | −11.7worse | 2.22% | 1.37% |
| All years3 windows | 7,807 | 74.2% | 81.7% | −7.5worse | 1.15% | 1.36% |
Day by day
No day was the worst more than once: Tuesday, Dec 26 in 2023, Sunday, Dec 29 in 2024, and Saturday, Dec 27 in 2025.
December 24 (Sun, Tue, Wed) was the best day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 86.0% on time, 5.4 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 30%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 12% more | 82.5% | 83.3% | −0.8about the same | 0.55% | 84.6 · 87.1 · 76.2 |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 17% more | 80.4% | 82.5% | −2.1about the same | 0.67% | 87.9 · 69.5 · 84.0 |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 15% more | 79.0% | 79.4% | −0.4about the same | 0.92% | 91.7 · 59.0 · 85.9 |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 11% more | 82.1% | 77.8% | +4.3better | 0.00% | 82.2 · 73.7 · 90.3 |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 22% more | 83.5% | 81.8% | +1.7about the same | 0.39% | 82.5 · 87.1 · 81.0 |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 5% fewer | 86.0% | 80.6% | +5.4better | 1.36% | 89.4 · 77.2 · 90.9 |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | 10% fewer | 88.1% | 83.9% | +4.2better | 1.19% | 85.2 · 94.2 · 85.1 |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | 19% more | 61.4% | 83.4% | −22.0worse | 3.39% | 57.4 · 68.5 · 58.2 |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 20% more | 58.5% | 82.6% | −24.1worse | 1.95% | 66.8 · 57.8 · 50.4 |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | 15% more | 63.8% | 79.5% | −15.7worse | 1.71% | 71.7 · 56.1 · 63.4 |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 11% more | 61.6% | 77.8% | −16.2worse | 1.43% | 88.3 · 35.5 · 60.0 |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 23% more | 74.0% | 81.8% | −7.8worse | 0.39% | 84.5 · 74.3 · 62.7 |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | about the same | 82.6% | 80.6% | +2.0about the same | 0.16% | 86.9 · 85.9 · 74.4 |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 3% fewer | 83.8% | 83.9% | −0.1about the same | 0.00% | 85.4 · 86.1 · 79.8 |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 17% more | 81.0% | 83.3% | −2.3about the same | 0.40% | 79.5 · 85.1 · 78.5 |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 15% more | 72.1% | 82.6% | −10.5worse | 1.64% | 85.3 · 71.4 · 59.8 |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 10% more | 70.6% | 79.2% | −8.6worse | 0.55% | 92.6 · 71.6 · 49.4 |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 4% more | 76.9% | 77.8% | −0.9about the same | 2.23% | 84.2 · 72.6 · 73.9 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at TPA were Saturday, Dec 23, 2023 (267 departures), Saturday, Dec 30, 2023 (265 departures), Friday, Dec 27, 2024 (257 departures), Monday, Dec 30, 2024 (257 departures), Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (260 departures), and Friday, Jan 2, 2026 (258 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 88.2%, still 3.4 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 58.4%.
The holiday cost flights leaving 6–9 PM the most (11.3 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (3.4 points below).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 87.2%, still 5.3 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 63.3%, 15.1 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 12–3 PM the most (15.1 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 6–9 PM the least (4.3 points below).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 88.2% | 91.6% | −3.4worse | 87.2% | 92.5% | −5.3worse |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 77.7% | 83.4% | −5.7worse | 72.2% | 82.1% | −9.9worse |
| 12–3 PM | 70.3% | 80.6% | −10.3worse | 63.3% | 78.4% | −15.1worse |
| 3–6 PM | 67.3% | 76.5% | −9.2worse | 67.7% | 76.2% | −8.5worse |
| 6–9 PM | 61.6% | 72.9% | −11.3worse | 66.5% | 70.8% | −4.3about the same |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 58.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (8.08% of that day’s departures, 37% of the window’s cancellations).
TPA beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts TPA’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether TPA did better or worse than the network.
| Year | TPA on time | TPA, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 79.5% | −1.4 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 72.4% | −9.7 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 70.4% | −11.7 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at TPA, or the network view.