Holiday travel
Thanksgiving at SNA
John Wayne Airport, Santa Ana, CA. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against SNA’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs the Wednesday before through the Sunday after, around Thanksgiving Day (the fourth Thursday of November). In the data: Nov 22–26, 2023; Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024; Nov 26–30, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Thanksgiving flights were better in one, about the same in one, and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 3.8 points below usual in 2025 to 5.9 points above usual in 2024.
0.58% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Thanksgiving windows, against 0.78% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in one of the three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 567 | 84.7% | 83.7% | +1.0about the same | 0.35% | 0.78% |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 560 | 89.6% | 83.7% | +5.9better | 0.00% | 0.78% |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 588 | 79.8% | 83.6% | −3.8worse | 1.36% | 0.78% |
| All years3 windows | 1,715 | 84.7% | 83.7% | +1.0about the same | 0.58% | 0.78% |
Day by day
The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the worst day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 73.8% on time, 6.3 points below an ordinary Sunday.
The Friday after Thanksgiving was the best day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 91.4% on time, 11.0 points above an ordinary Friday.
Thanksgiving Day itself carried 46% fewer departures than an ordinary Thursday and ran 97.2% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday beforeoutside the window | 2% more | 79.3% | 83.0% | −3.7about the same | 0.25% | 66.9 · 88.0 · 82.4 |
| Tuesday beforeoutside the window | 13% more | 84.9% | 87.2% | −2.3about the same | 0.26% | 83.1 · 86.0 · 85.6 |
| Wednesday before | 16% more | 82.8% | 87.3% | −4.5worse | 0.25% | 84.8 · 85.7 · 77.8 |
| Thanksgiving Day | 46% fewer | 97.2% | 84.7% | +12.5better | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Friday after | 8% fewer | 91.4% | 80.4% | +11.0better | 0.28% | 91.6 · — · 87.4 |
| Saturday after | 17% more | 84.5% | 86.3% | −1.8about the same | 1.44% | — · — · 76.1 |
| Sunday after | about the same | 73.8% | 80.1% | −6.3worse | 0.77% | 70.4 · 82.7 · 67.9 |
| Monday afteroutside the window | 3% more | 81.4% | 83.0% | −1.6about the same | 0.50% | 91.6 · 75.9 · 76.9 |
| Tuesday afteroutside the window | about the same | 81.3% | 87.2% | −5.9worse | 0.00% | 91.7 · — · 61.7 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at SNA were Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023 (133 departures), Sunday, Nov 26, 2023 (126 departures), Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 (133 departures), Sunday, Dec 1, 2024 (133 departures), Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 (135 departures), and Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 (133 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 94.3%, 3.9 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 77.6%, about level with usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (+3.9 points) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM did worst (−1.8 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 93.5%, 4.7 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 65.9%, 12.8 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (+4.7 points) and those leaving 12–3 PM did worst (−12.8 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 94.3% | 90.4% | +3.9better | 93.5% | 88.8% | +4.7better |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 84.1% | 85.9% | −1.8about the same | 79.4% | 86.6% | −7.2worse |
| 12–3 PM | 77.6% | 78.2% | −0.6about the same | 65.9% | 78.7% | −12.8worse |
| 3–6 PM | 79.1% | 79.9% | −0.8about the same | 68.6% | 80.8% | −12.2worse |
| 6–9 PM | 83.2% | 80.6% | +2.6about the same | 81.5% | 81.1% | +0.4about the same |
| 9 PM–5 AM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SNA beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts SNA’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether SNA did better or worse than the network.
| Year | SNA on time | SNA, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 84.7% | +1.0 | 83.7% | +1.9 |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 89.6% | +5.9 | 82.6% | +0.8 |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 79.8% | −3.8 | 72.8% | −9.0 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at SNA, or the network view.