Holiday travel
July 4 at SNA
John Wayne Airport, Santa Ana, CA. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against SNA’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
July 4 flights ran better than ordinary days in all four years. The gap ran from 3.7 points above usual in 2023 to 10.4 points above usual in 2024.
0.89% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 1.41% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the four years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 590 | 82.0% | 78.3% | +3.7better | 0.68% | 1.40% |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 568 | 87.9% | 77.5% | +10.4better | 1.23% | 1.22% |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 592 | 83.7% | 78.5% | +5.2better | 1.01% | 1.34% |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 617 | 79.7% | 75.6% | +4.1better | 0.65% | 1.67% |
| All years4 windows | 2,367 | 83.2% | 77.4% | +5.8better | 0.89% | 1.41% |
Day by day
July 5 (Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun) was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 82.8% on time, still 6.3 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
July 3 (Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri) was the best day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 83.1% on time, 6.7 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
July 4 itself carried 17% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 91.8% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 60%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 2% fewer | 78.5% | 75.3% | +3.2about the same | 0.27% | — · 82.4 · — · 69.7 |
| Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 2% fewer | 80.7% | 76.3% | +4.4better | 0.27% | — · — · 71.6 · 83.8 |
| Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | 2% fewer | 81.1% | 76.3% | +4.8better | 1.58% | — · 74.4 · 84.4 · — |
| Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed | 2% fewer | 81.1% | 80.7% | +0.4about the same | 1.72% | — · — · — · — |
| Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu | 3% fewer | 78.8% | 75.9% | +2.9about the same | 0.41% | 76.0 · — · 76.9 · 78.6 |
| Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri | about the same | 83.1% | 76.4% | +6.7better | 0.76% | 87.3 · 86.7 · 78.2 · 81.1 |
| July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat | 17% fewer | 91.8% | 78.1% | +13.7better | 0.98% | — · — · — · — |
| Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun | 4% fewer | 82.8% | 76.5% | +6.3better | 0.63% | 76.7 · — · — · 72.4 |
| Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | about the same | 78.1% | 75.7% | +2.4about the same | 1.36% | 81.3 · — · 66.2 · 77.5 |
| Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | about the same | 79.0% | 75.7% | +3.3about the same | 0.76% | 75.4 · 74.4 · 79.3 · — |
| Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the window | 3% more | 81.8% | 80.6% | +1.2about the same | 1.44% | — · 83.8 · — · 81.5 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at SNA were Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (123 departures), Monday, Jul 3, 2023 (126 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (118 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (123 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (122 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (143 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (140 departures), and Friday, Jul 3, 2026 (136 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 93.6%, 2.7 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 74.6%, still 4.5 points above usual for that time of day.
The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (12.5 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (2.7 points above).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 94.4%, 3.5 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 72.2%, still 4.1 points above usual for that time of day.
The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (10.8 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (3.5 points above).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 93.6% | 90.9% | +2.7better | 94.4% | 90.9% | +3.5better |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 84.9% | 81.1% | +3.8better | 84.3% | 79.7% | +4.6about the same |
| 12–3 PM | 74.6% | 70.1% | +4.5better | 72.2% | 68.1% | +4.1about the same |
| 3–6 PM | 82.7% | 70.2% | +12.5better | 78.5% | 67.7% | +10.8better |
| 6–9 PM | 76.0% | 68.2% | +7.8better | 72.3% | 66.1% | +6.2about the same |
| 9 PM–5 AM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SNA beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts SNA’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether SNA did better or worse than the network.
| Year | SNA on time | SNA, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 82.0% | +3.7 | 73.9% | +2.9 |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 87.9% | +10.4 | 82.2% | +11.7 |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 83.7% | +5.2 | 73.5% | +2.3 |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 79.7% | +4.1 | 73.1% | +3.2 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at SNA, or the network view.