Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at SNA
John Wayne Airport, Santa Ana, CA. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against SNA’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in one and worse in two of the three years. The gap ran from 6.4 points below usual in 2025 to 6.1 points above usual in 2023.
1.37% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 1.02% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was higher in one of the three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 1,281 | 89.9% | 83.8% | +6.1better | 0.94% | 1.03% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 1,323 | 79.1% | 84.2% | −5.1worse | 1.13% | 1.00% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 1,332 | 77.6% | 84.0% | −6.4worse | 2.03% | 1.03% |
| All years3 windows | 3,936 | 82.1% | 84.0% | −1.9worse | 1.37% | 1.02% |
Day by day
No day was the worst more than once: Wednesday, Dec 27 in 2023, Thursday, Jan 2 in 2024, and Sunday, Dec 28 in 2025.
No day was the best more than once: Monday, Jan 1 in 2023, Monday, Dec 30 in 2024, and Friday, Jan 2 in 2025.
Christmas Day itself carried 11% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 91.6% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 20%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 5% more | 79.1% | 84.0% | −4.9worse | 1.05% | — · 91.5 · 60.5 |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 10% more | 64.1% | 83.5% | −19.4worse | 2.97% | 87.3 · 25.4 · — |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 4% more | 68.1% | 83.8% | −15.7worse | 3.04% | 87.3 · — · 75.6 |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 2% more | 71.9% | 80.3% | −8.4worse | 0.52% | 77.8 · 79.2 · 58.6 |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 8% more | 82.5% | 84.7% | −2.2about the same | 0.56% | — · 84.0 · 74.6 |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 7% fewer | 85.2% | 85.0% | +0.2about the same | 0.93% | — · — · — |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | 11% fewer | 91.6% | 84.9% | +6.7better | 1.54% | — · — · — |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | 7% more | 77.5% | 84.2% | −6.7worse | 2.05% | 88.8 · 72.9 · 71.0 |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 9% more | 76.8% | 83.3% | −6.5worse | 0.54% | 79.7 · 78.0 · — |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | 2% more | 74.6% | 83.8% | −9.2worse | 1.12% | 92.6 · — · 59.8 |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 2% more | 80.1% | 80.3% | −0.2about the same | 1.04% | 90.2 · 71.0 · 79.7 |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 9% more | 85.3% | 84.7% | +0.6about the same | 2.20% | — · 86.3 · 82.6 |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | 5% fewer | 92.3% | 85.0% | +7.3better | 0.91% | — · — · — |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 6% fewer | 88.3% | 84.9% | +3.4about the same | 0.58% | 95.8 · — · — |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 8% more | 72.9% | 84.1% | −11.2worse | 3.29% | 89.1 · 46.8 · 82.0 |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 10% more | 72.4% | 83.5% | −11.1worse | 4.34% | 77.0 · 67.5 · — |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 2% more | 85.0% | 83.7% | +1.3about the same | 0.56% | 89.3 · — · 78.0 |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 3% more | 78.3% | 80.3% | −2.0about the same | 2.05% | 86.2 · 69.0 · 80.0 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at SNA were Tuesday, Dec 26, 2023 (126 departures), Tuesday, Jan 2, 2024 (128 departures), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (135 departures), Thursday, Jan 2, 2025 (134 departures), Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (130 departures), and Friday, Jan 2, 2026 (133 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 91.3%, 1.9 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 75.9%, 6.0 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (+1.9 points) and those leaving 3–6 PM did worst (−6.0 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 91.8%, 1.9 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 68.8%, 14.8 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (+1.9 points) and those leaving 6–9 PM did worst (−14.8 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 91.3% | 89.4% | +1.9about the same | 91.8% | 89.9% | +1.9about the same |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 82.9% | 84.1% | −1.2about the same | 74.5% | 84.1% | −9.6worse |
| 12–3 PM | 78.2% | 79.9% | −1.7about the same | 70.7% | 80.4% | −9.7worse |
| 3–6 PM | 75.9% | 81.9% | −6.0worse | 71.5% | 83.4% | −11.9worse |
| 6–9 PM | 76.8% | 82.1% | −5.3worse | 68.8% | 83.6% | −14.8worse |
| 9 PM–5 AM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025 (4.69% of that day’s departures, 22% of the window’s cancellations).
SNA beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts SNA’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether SNA did better or worse than the network.
| Year | SNA on time | SNA, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 89.9% | +6.1 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 79.1% | −5.1 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 77.6% | −6.4 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at SNA, or the network view.