Holiday travel

July 4 at PHX

Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, Phoenix, AZ. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against PHX’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in three and about the same in one of the four years. The gap ran from 1.7 points above usual in 2025 to 9.8 points above usual in 2024.

0.61% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 0.83% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the four years.

July 4, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Jul 1–5, 20232,11079.4%74.0%+5.4better0.57%0.85%
2024Jul 1–5, 20242,38483.1%73.3%+9.8better0.38%0.84%
2025Jul 1–5, 20252,35275.8%74.1%+1.7about the same0.43%0.76%
2026Jul 1–5, 20262,43477.3%73.1%+4.2better1.07%0.85%
All years4 windows9,28078.9%73.6%+5.3better0.61%0.83%

Day by day

No day was the worst more than once: Saturday, Jul 1 in 2023, Wednesday, Jul 3 in 2024, Wednesday, Jul 2 in 2025, and Sunday, Jul 5 in 2026.

July 4 was the best day of the window in three of the four years. Over the years it ran 88.2% on time, 14.3 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 27% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 88.2% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

July 4, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the windowabout the same78.2%73.2%+5.0better0.46%— · 79.8 · 75.7 · 78.8
Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same78.8%73.1%+5.7better0.20%— · 78.8 · 74.1 · 83.1
Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the windowabout the same76.5%73.1%+3.4better0.91%— · 73.0 · 74.9 · 81.5
Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed2% fewer74.7%74.4%+0.3about the same0.67%73.7 · 79.6 · 66.7 · 78.3
Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu3% fewer74.3%73.6%+0.7about the same0.31%78.0 · 80.8 · 62.8 · 76.0
Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri5% fewer77.6%72.6%+5.0better0.56%84.4 · 77.0 · 75.5 · 75.2
July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat27% fewer88.2%73.9%+14.3better0.75%84.3 · 91.6 · 91.7 · 84.7
Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun4% fewer82.0%73.5%+8.5better0.83%77.7 · 88.8 · 86.7 · 75.2
Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same76.1%72.9%+3.2better0.74%77.4 · 77.5 · 78.8 · 71.2
Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the windowabout the same75.2%72.8%+2.4better0.68%79.0 · 75.7 · 73.5 · 73.0
Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the windowabout the same77.4%74.4%+3.0better1.25%81.3 · 73.9 · 74.2 · 80.4

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at PHX were Saturday, Jul 1, 2023 (436 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (461 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (507 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (510 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (498 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (530 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (540 departures), and Friday, Jul 3, 2026 (535 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 90.8%, 2.9 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 66.5%, still 5.4 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (9.0 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (2.9 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 90.0%, 2.0 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 59.3%, about level with usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+4.4 points) and those leaving 12–3 PM did worst (−1.8 points).

July 4, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM90.8%87.9%+2.9better90.0%88.0%+2.0about the same
9 AM–12 PM85.0%80.5%+4.5better82.4%80.6%+1.8about the same
12–3 PM76.4%72.3%+4.1better70.9%72.7%−1.8about the same
3–6 PM72.3%63.3%+9.0better67.3%62.9%+4.4better
6–9 PM66.5%61.1%+5.4better59.3%60.2%−0.9about the same
9 PM–5 AM70.8%67.5%+3.3better67.9%66.6%+1.3about the same

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (1.90% of that day’s departures, 38% of the window’s cancellations).

PHX beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts PHX’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether PHX did better or worse than the network.

July 4 at PHX beside all covered airports, by year
YearPHX on timePHX, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Jul 1–5, 202379.4%+5.473.9%+2.9
2024Jul 1–5, 202483.1%+9.882.2%+11.7
2025Jul 1–5, 202575.8%+1.773.5%+2.3
2026Jul 1–5, 202677.3%+4.273.1%+3.2

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at PHX, or the network view.