Holiday travel

Christmas to New Year’s at PHX

Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, Phoenix, AZ. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against PHX’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were about the same in one and worse in two of the three years. The gap ran from 7.9 points below usual in 2025 to 0.8 points below usual in 2023.

0.53% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 0.79% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.

Christmas to New Year’s, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 20245,82082.5%83.3%−0.8about the same0.45%0.82%
2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 20256,19280.8%83.4%−2.6worse0.24%0.79%
2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 20266,39575.4%83.3%−7.9worse0.88%0.77%
All years3 windows18,40779.5%83.4%−3.9worse0.53%0.79%

Day by day

No day was the worst more than once: Saturday, Dec 23 in 2023, Thursday, Dec 26 in 2024, and Thursday, Jan 1 in 2025.

January 1 (Mon, Wed, Thu) was the best day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 83.8% on time, about level with what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

Christmas Day itself carried 17% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 88.7% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

Christmas to New Year’s, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025
Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window9% more76.0%83.1%−7.1worse0.86%86.9 · 79.1 · 64.3
Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window17% more73.0%82.5%−9.5worse0.78%83.5 · 68.3 · 68.4
Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window10% more76.9%82.4%−5.5worse0.56%83.0 · 73.4 · 74.9
Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window8% more72.6%80.3%−7.7worse0.27%57.6 · 76.4 · 82.5
Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue19% more80.1%84.3%−4.2worse0.17%74.7 · 84.4 · 80.7
Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed14% fewer77.4%84.9%−7.5worse0.98%72.5 · 76.5 · 82.9
Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu17% fewer88.7%83.9%+4.8better0.60%86.7 · 92.6 · 87.0
Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri13% more76.3%83.3%−7.0worse1.16%85.0 · 69.9 · 74.8
Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat17% more74.8%82.5%−7.7worse0.56%79.0 · 73.8 · 72.0
Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun11% more73.0%82.4%−9.4worse0.62%79.2 · 73.1 · 67.4
Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon8% more71.1%80.3%−9.2worse0.55%78.0 · 68.2 · 67.8
Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue18% more84.6%84.3%+0.3about the same0.17%87.6 · 87.4 · 79.2
Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed4% fewer86.8%84.9%+1.9better0.27%89.3 · 88.1 · 83.3
Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thuabout the same83.8%83.9%−0.1about the same0.37%91.2 · 92.8 · 68.6
Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri12% more80.9%83.2%−2.3worse0.44%83.9 · 87.3 · 72.0
Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window11% more76.6%82.6%−6.0worse0.76%80.6 · 75.3 · 74.1
Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window3% more78.4%82.3%−3.9worse0.60%87.1 · 74.9 · 74.5
Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window2% more82.0%80.3%+1.7about the same1.85%88.7 · 75.4 · 82.7

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at PHX were Saturday, Dec 23, 2023 (576 departures), Friday, Dec 29, 2023 (561 departures), Friday, Dec 27, 2024 (627 departures), Monday, Dec 30, 2024 (628 departures), Sunday, Dec 28, 2025 (636 departures), and Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (635 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 90.2%, still 1.6 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 71.3%, 6.7 points below usual for that time of day.

The holiday cost flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (6.8 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (1.6 points below).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 88.7%, still 2.5 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 66.7%, 7.1 points below usual for that time of day.

The holiday cost flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (9.3 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (2.5 points below).

Christmas to New Year’s, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM90.2%91.8%−1.6worse88.7%91.2%−2.5about the same
9 AM–12 PM82.1%85.6%−3.5worse78.7%83.4%−4.7worse
12–3 PM79.8%81.7%−1.9worse73.8%78.8%−5.0worse
3–6 PM75.1%79.8%−4.7worse69.5%76.5%−7.0worse
6–9 PM71.3%78.0%−6.7worse66.7%73.8%−7.1worse
9 PM–5 AM74.8%81.6%−6.8worse68.6%77.9%−9.3worse

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Sunday, Dec 24, 2023 (2.03% of that day’s departures, 35% of the window’s cancellations) and Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (2.21% of that day’s departures, 25% of the window’s cancellations).

PHX beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts PHX’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether PHX did better or worse than the network.

Christmas to New Year’s at PHX beside all covered airports, by year
YearPHX on timePHX, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 202482.5%−0.881.0%+2.2
2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 202580.8%−2.676.2%−3.4
2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 202675.4%−7.971.1%−8.5

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at PHX, or the network view.