Holiday travel
Thanksgiving at MSP
Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport, Minneapolis, MN. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against MSP’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs the Wednesday before through the Sunday after, around Thanksgiving Day (the fourth Thursday of November). In the data: Nov 22–26, 2023; Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024; Nov 26–30, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Thanksgiving flights were about the same in one and worse in two of the three years. The gap ran from 30.3 points below usual in 2025 to 0.9 points above usual in 2023.
0.86% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Thanksgiving windows, against 0.65% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years and higher in one.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 1,537 | 84.6% | 83.7% | +0.9about the same | 0.00% | 0.65% |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 1,626 | 76.6% | 83.8% | −7.2worse | 0.06% | 0.65% |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 1,362 | 53.4% | 83.7% | −30.3worse | 2.79% | 0.66% |
| All years3 windows | 4,525 | 72.5% | 83.7% | −11.2worse | 0.86% | 0.65% |
Day by day
The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 58.4% on time, 27.0 points below an ordinary Sunday.
Thanksgiving Day was the best day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 84.5% on time, 6.1 points above an ordinary Thursday.
Thanksgiving Day itself carried 42% fewer departures than an ordinary Thursday and ran 84.5% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 10%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday beforeoutside the window | 2% more | 90.5% | 82.9% | +7.6better | 0.10% | 92.9 · 88.2 · 90.8 |
| Tuesday beforeoutside the window | 9% more | 84.7% | 86.4% | −1.7about the same | 0.39% | 90.2 · 81.4 · 82.7 |
| Wednesday before | 11% more | 77.8% | 83.5% | −5.7worse | 0.29% | 93.4 · 86.5 · 49.5 |
| Thanksgiving Day | 42% fewer | 84.5% | 78.4% | +6.1better | 0.00% | 97.0 · 64.2 · 94.2 |
| Friday after | 18% fewer | 88.4% | 83.2% | +5.2better | 0.00% | 93.8 · 82.7 · 88.9 |
| Saturday after | 17% more | 62.0% | 85.7% | −23.7worse | 2.92% | 73.6 · 83.8 · 16.4 |
| Sunday after | 8% more | 58.4% | 85.4% | −27.0worse | 0.56% | 72.8 · 61.9 · 38.1 |
| Monday afteroutside the window | 5% more | 63.7% | 82.9% | −19.2worse | 0.86% | 89.9 · 49.7 · 51.6 |
| Tuesday afteroutside the window | 2% fewer | 76.7% | 86.4% | −9.7worse | 0.00% | 86.9 · 83.3 · 58.7 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at MSP were Saturday, Nov 25, 2023 (356 departures), Sunday, Nov 26, 2023 (356 departures), Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 (378 departures), Sunday, Dec 1, 2024 (383 departures), Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 (312 departures), and Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 (325 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 79.5%, still 8.6 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 64.6%, 17.9 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (18.3 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 3–6 PM the least (6.7 points below).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 71.4%, still 17.3 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 55.2%, 27.4 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 6–9 PM the most (27.4 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 3–6 PM the least (14.2 points below).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 79.5% | 88.1% | −8.6worse | 71.4% | 88.7% | −17.3worse |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 74.7% | 85.3% | −10.6worse | 66.5% | 86.2% | −19.7worse |
| 12–3 PM | 73.5% | 83.1% | −9.6worse | 66.9% | 84.9% | −18.0worse |
| 3–6 PM | 71.2% | 77.9% | −6.7worse | 66.1% | 80.3% | −14.2worse |
| 6–9 PM | 64.6% | 82.5% | −17.9worse | 55.2% | 82.6% | −27.4worse |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 66.3% | 84.6% | −18.3worse | 61.3% | 84.4% | −23.1worse |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Saturday, Nov 29, 2025 (10.00% of that day’s departures, 79% of the window’s cancellations).
MSP beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts MSP’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether MSP did better or worse than the network.
| Year | MSP on time | MSP, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 84.6% | +0.9 | 83.7% | +1.9 |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 76.6% | −7.2 | 82.6% | +0.8 |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 53.4% | −30.3 | 72.8% | −9.0 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at MSP, or the network view.