Holiday travel
July 4 at MSP
Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport, Minneapolis, MN. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against MSP’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in three and about the same in one of the four years. The gap ran from 1.1 points below usual in 2026 to 9.4 points above usual in 2025.
0.69% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 1.48% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in three of the four years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 1,599 | 81.8% | 74.1% | +7.7better | 0.69% | 1.58% |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 1,702 | 78.5% | 73.0% | +5.5better | 0.24% | 1.34% |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 1,520 | 83.8% | 74.4% | +9.4better | 0.20% | 1.35% |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 1,657 | 72.2% | 73.3% | −1.1about the same | 1.63% | 1.65% |
| All years4 windows | 6,478 | 79.0% | 73.7% | +5.3better | 0.69% | 1.48% |
Day by day
July 1 (Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 77.8% on time, still 3.3 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
No day was the best more than once: Monday, Jul 3 in 2023, Thursday, Jul 4 in 2024, Wednesday, Jul 2 in 2025, and Sunday, Jul 5 in 2026.
July 4 itself carried 19% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 85.5% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 2% fewer | 67.6% | 74.1% | −6.5worse | 2.09% | — · 67.0 · 73.9 · 62.9 |
| Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 5% fewer | 78.8% | 74.8% | +4.0better | 0.39% | — · 79.7 · 66.8 · 89.3 |
| Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | 8% fewer | 80.7% | 74.1% | +6.6better | 0.20% | — · 80.0 · 79.7 · 82.5 |
| Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed | 8% fewer | 77.8% | 74.5% | +3.3better | 0.76% | 80.2 · 85.2 · 77.9 · 68.0 |
| Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu | 10% fewer | 79.3% | 73.7% | +5.6better | 0.23% | 79.0 · 80.8 · 89.5 · 68.7 |
| Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri | 9% fewer | 76.1% | 71.9% | +4.2better | 0.89% | 83.8 · 67.3 · 83.5 · 71.8 |
| July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat | 19% fewer | 85.5% | 75.5% | +10.0better | 0.87% | 88.5 · 88.6 · 87.0 · 77.2 |
| Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun | 7% fewer | 77.1% | 73.1% | +4.0better | 0.75% | 78.7 · 72.5 · 81.2 · 76.2 |
| Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 3% fewer | 81.8% | 74.5% | +7.3better | 0.71% | 83.6 · 86.4 · 82.3 · 75.3 |
| Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | 2% fewer | 78.8% | 73.5% | +5.3better | 0.62% | 81.6 · 74.2 · 76.8 · 83.4 |
| Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the window | about the same | 80.8% | 74.4% | +6.4better | 0.42% | 87.7 · 77.2 · 78.9 · 80.1 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at MSP were Saturday, Jul 1, 2023 (318 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (361 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (349 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (380 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (314 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (325 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (343 departures), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (362 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 86.3%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 72.8%, still 8.5 points above usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM did best (+9.3 points) and those leaving 5–9 AM did worst (−0.1 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 89.0%, 2.8 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 69.5%, still 7.1 points above usual for that time of day.
The holiday helped flights leaving 6–9 PM the most (9.6 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 12–3 PM the least (2.5 points above).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 86.3% | 86.4% | −0.1about the same | 89.0% | 86.2% | +2.8better |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 82.5% | 81.1% | +1.4about the same | 85.4% | 80.5% | +4.9better |
| 12–3 PM | 79.9% | 73.3% | +6.6better | 74.6% | 72.1% | +2.5about the same |
| 3–6 PM | 72.8% | 64.3% | +8.5better | 69.5% | 62.4% | +7.1better |
| 6–9 PM | 73.3% | 64.4% | +8.9better | 73.1% | 63.5% | +9.6better |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 73.7% | 64.4% | +9.3better | 70.6% | 63.0% | +7.6better |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Saturday, Jul 4, 2026 (2.87% of that day’s departures, 30% of the window’s cancellations).
MSP beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts MSP’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether MSP did better or worse than the network.
| Year | MSP on time | MSP, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 81.8% | +7.7 | 73.9% | +2.9 |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 78.5% | +5.5 | 82.2% | +11.7 |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 83.8% | +9.4 | 73.5% | +2.3 |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 72.2% | −1.1 | 73.1% | +3.2 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at MSP, or the network view.