Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at MSP
Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport, Minneapolis, MN. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against MSP’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in two and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 17.4 points below usual in 2025 to 9.2 points above usual in 2023.
1.90% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 0.98% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was higher in one of the three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 3,376 | 87.0% | 77.8% | +9.2better | 0.89% | 1.04% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 3,492 | 80.1% | 77.9% | +2.2better | 0.86% | 0.96% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 2,910 | 61.0% | 78.4% | −17.4worse | 4.33% | 0.94% |
| All years3 windows | 9,778 | 77.0% | 78.0% | −1.0worse | 1.90% | 0.98% |
Day by day
No day was the worst more than once: Saturday, Dec 30 in 2023, Sunday, Dec 29 in 2024, and Sunday, Dec 28 in 2025.
No day was the best more than once: Monday, Jan 1 in 2023, Thursday, Jan 2 in 2024, and Wednesday, Dec 24 in 2025.
Christmas Day itself carried 18% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 88.6% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 10%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 4% more | 59.6% | 78.5% | −18.9worse | 0.42% | 96.8 · 17.3 · 66.7 |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 5% more | 78.4% | 78.4% | 0.0about the same | 0.22% | 96.5 · 69.0 · 68.7 |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 8% more | 81.1% | 76.8% | +4.3better | 0.21% | 95.8 · 67.4 · 80.4 |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 5% more | 87.3% | 75.9% | +11.4better | 1.13% | 88.8 · 86.6 · 86.4 |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 10% more | 84.0% | 77.0% | +7.0better | 1.04% | 84.5 · 86.1 · 80.9 |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 14% fewer | 87.9% | 80.1% | +7.8better | 2.10% | 92.1 · 81.4 · 90.9 |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | 18% fewer | 88.6% | 78.2% | +10.4better | 1.59% | 90.6 · 90.5 · 84.2 |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | 7% more | 76.8% | 78.5% | −1.7about the same | 3.26% | 82.7 · 78.9 · 66.9 |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 8% more | 74.1% | 78.5% | −4.4worse | 1.36% | 84.4 · 78.4 · 54.4 |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | 8% more | 69.4% | 76.8% | −7.4worse | 6.33% | 92.5 · 78.8 · 21.8 |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 5% more | 68.4% | 75.9% | −7.5worse | 2.96% | 92.9 · 62.7 · 45.1 |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 11% more | 58.0% | 77.0% | −19.0worse | 0.83% | 63.4 · 68.7 · 38.2 |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | 13% fewer | 75.7% | 80.0% | −4.3worse | 0.13% | 87.3 · 80.5 · 56.0 |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 18% fewer | 81.7% | 78.1% | +3.6better | 0.27% | 95.8 · 91.2 · 56.1 |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 2% more | 87.8% | 78.5% | +9.3better | 0.22% | 93.8 · 90.8 · 77.7 |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | about the same | 79.1% | 78.5% | +0.6about the same | 0.45% | 87.9 · 80.3 · 67.2 |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | about the same | 80.4% | 76.8% | +3.6better | 0.56% | 94.6 · 81.0 · 64.1 |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 6% fewer | 83.3% | 75.9% | +7.4better | 2.16% | 95.9 · 75.1 · 77.0 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at MSP were Thursday, Dec 28, 2023 (335 departures), Friday, Dec 29, 2023 (336 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (356 departures), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (356 departures), Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (291 departures), and Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (290 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 83.4%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 72.6%, 1.8 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM did best (+1.0 points) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM did worst (−1.9 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 83.2%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 74.2%, still 2.4 points above usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM did best (+6.1 points) and those leaving 5–9 AM did worst (−0.2 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 83.4% | 84.3% | −0.9about the same | 83.2% | 83.4% | −0.2about the same |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 77.9% | 79.8% | −1.9worse | 78.0% | 77.9% | +0.1about the same |
| 12–3 PM | 75.0% | 76.3% | −1.3about the same | 79.8% | 74.9% | +4.9better |
| 3–6 PM | 74.6% | 73.9% | +0.7about the same | 76.9% | 72.0% | +4.9about the same |
| 6–9 PM | 72.6% | 74.4% | −1.8about the same | 74.2% | 71.8% | +2.4about the same |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 79.0% | 78.0% | +1.0about the same | 82.2% | 76.1% | +6.1about the same |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Sunday, Dec 24, 2023 (4.87% of that day’s departures, 43% of the window’s cancellations), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (3.09% of that day’s departures, 37% of the window’s cancellations), and Sunday, Dec 28, 2025 (20.49% of that day’s departures, 47% of the window’s cancellations).
MSP beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts MSP’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether MSP did better or worse than the network.
| Year | MSP on time | MSP, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 87.0% | +9.2 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 80.1% | +2.2 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 61.0% | −17.4 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at MSP, or the network view.