Holiday travel

July 4 at LAS

Harry Reid International Airport, Las Vegas, NV. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against LAS’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in two, about the same in one, and worse in one of the four years. The gap ran from 6.6 points below usual in 2025 to 10.6 points above usual in 2024.

0.89% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 1.24% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the four years.

July 4, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Jul 1–5, 20232,41072.0%71.9%+0.1about the same0.83%1.18%
2024Jul 1–5, 20242,48181.0%70.4%+10.6better0.48%1.26%
2025Jul 1–5, 20252,35365.1%71.7%−6.6worse1.49%1.20%
2026Jul 1–5, 20262,20578.0%69.1%+8.9better0.77%1.32%
All years4 windows9,44974.0%70.8%+3.2better0.89%1.24%

Day by day

No day was the worst more than once: Wednesday, Jul 5 in 2023, Wednesday, Jul 3 in 2024, Wednesday, Jul 2 in 2025, and Wednesday, Jul 1 in 2026.

July 4 was the best day of the window in three of the four years. Over the years it ran 86.4% on time, 15.7 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 18% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 86.4% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 40%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

July 4, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window2% fewer76.2%68.7%+7.5better0.54%— · 77.5 · 77.3 · 73.7
Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window2% fewer79.4%69.3%+10.1better0.27%— · 79.9 · 74.3 · 84.7
Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window2% fewer74.9%69.2%+5.7better0.72%— · 64.2 · 81.1 · 80.8
Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed3% fewer69.7%73.7%−4.0worse1.92%69.4 · 76.0 · 52.3 · 80.1
Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thuabout the same65.6%70.7%−5.1worse0.60%62.7 · 81.8 · 43.8 · 74.4
Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Friabout the same72.6%68.8%+3.8better0.67%76.1 · 79.7 · 58.3 · 77.8
July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat18% fewer86.4%70.7%+15.7better0.74%86.0 · 85.2 · 88.8 · 85.5
Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun4% fewer78.3%70.6%+7.7better0.58%67.0 · 83.2 · 89.3 · 75.3
Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same70.8%68.4%+2.4better0.88%69.1 · 71.3 · 73.2 · 69.4
Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the windowabout the same67.9%68.4%−0.5about the same1.39%64.1 · 60.4 · 71.7 · 77.2
Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the windowabout the same76.2%73.7%+2.5better1.59%76.7 · 68.5 · 80.5 · 80.8

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at LAS were Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (525 departures), Monday, Jul 3, 2023 (520 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (524 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (525 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (496 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (563 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (493 departures), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (493 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 88.0%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 59.0%, still 1.9 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 12–3 PM the most (6.2 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (0.2 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.0%, still 2.3 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 54.2%, about level with usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 12–3 PM did best (+1.9 points) and those leaving 5–9 AM did worst (−2.3 points).

July 4, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM88.0%87.8%+0.2about the same85.0%87.3%−2.3about the same
9 AM–12 PM80.0%78.2%+1.8about the same75.3%76.9%−1.6about the same
12–3 PM71.9%65.7%+6.2better64.8%62.9%+1.9about the same
3–6 PM65.6%59.9%+5.7better58.0%56.5%+1.5about the same
6–9 PM59.0%57.1%+1.9about the same54.2%54.2%0.0about the same
9 PM–5 AM67.8%64.4%+3.4better59.9%61.1%−1.2about the same

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (1.61% of that day’s departures, 40% of the window’s cancellations) and Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (6.03% of that day’s departures, 80% of the window’s cancellations).

LAS beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts LAS’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether LAS did better or worse than the network.

July 4 at LAS beside all covered airports, by year
YearLAS on timeLAS, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Jul 1–5, 202372.0%+0.173.9%+2.9
2024Jul 1–5, 202481.0%+10.682.2%+11.7
2025Jul 1–5, 202565.1%−6.673.5%+2.3
2026Jul 1–5, 202678.0%+8.973.1%+3.2

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at LAS, or the network view.