Holiday travel
July 4 at JFK
John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York, NY. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against JFK’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in one and about the same in three of the four years. The gap ran from 0.3 points above usual in 2026 to 11.0 points above usual in 2024.
4.36% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 5.57% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the four years and higher in one.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 1,786 | 69.9% | 68.0% | +1.9about the same | 2.86% | 6.16% |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 1,748 | 79.7% | 68.7% | +11.0better | 0.86% | 5.11% |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 1,474 | 70.3% | 68.1% | +2.2about the same | 6.24% | 5.27% |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 1,464 | 66.9% | 66.6% | +0.3about the same | 8.47% | 5.72% |
| All years4 windows | 6,472 | 72.1% | 67.9% | +4.2better | 4.36% | 5.57% |
Day by day
July 1 (Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 67.9% on time, about level with what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
No day was the best more than once: Sunday, Jul 2 in 2023, Thursday, Jul 4 in 2024, Saturday, Jul 5 in 2025, and Wednesday, Jul 1 in 2026.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 20%, not zero.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 3% fewer | 69.9% | 64.9% | +5.0better | 3.63% | — · 75.1 · 53.9 · 77.8 |
| Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 2% fewer | 69.6% | 66.0% | +3.6better | 3.09% | — · 55.0 · 70.9 · 83.5 |
| Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | 3% fewer | 59.5% | 68.3% | −8.8worse | 13.95% | — · 32.1 · 50.5 · 92.2 |
| Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed | 2% more | 67.9% | 68.7% | −0.8about the same | 5.10% | 69.6 · 63.4 · 56.3 · 81.3 |
| Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu | about the same | 75.0% | 68.4% | +6.6better | 3.38% | 73.0 · 84.6 · 66.9 · 73.7 |
| Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri | about the same | 70.2% | 67.8% | +2.4about the same | 2.97% | 68.6 · 86.2 · 58.0 · 64.6 |
| July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat | about the same | 70.3% | 68.4% | +1.9about the same | 4.59% | 63.2 · 86.8 · 79.2 · 44.1 |
| Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun | 2% more | 76.9% | 66.2% | +10.7better | 5.76% | 75.1 · 77.0 · 89.0 · 65.0 |
| Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 2% more | 63.8% | 66.6% | −2.8worse | 6.04% | 80.7 · 53.9 · 76.6 · 34.5 |
| Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | 2% more | 64.5% | 67.1% | −2.6about the same | 6.01% | 57.9 · 73.3 · 57.3 · 68.5 |
| Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the window | 2% more | 68.6% | 68.8% | −0.2about the same | 5.03% | 54.7 · 81.5 · 56.0 · 79.9 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at JFK were Monday, Jul 3, 2023 (358 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (362 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (352 departures), Friday, Jul 5, 2024 (350 departures), Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (297 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (304 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (301 departures), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (303 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 84.9%, 2.2 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 49.6%, 2.2 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+9.3 points) and those leaving 9 PM–5 AM did worst (−2.2 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 84.6%, 1.8 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 30.7%, 21.1 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+7.4 points) and those leaving 9 PM–5 AM did worst (−21.1 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 84.9% | 82.7% | +2.2better | 84.6% | 82.8% | +1.8about the same |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 81.3% | 76.8% | +4.5better | 81.5% | 76.8% | +4.7better |
| 12–3 PM | 74.0% | 69.2% | +4.8better | 72.9% | 69.2% | +3.7about the same |
| 3–6 PM | 68.8% | 59.5% | +9.3better | 66.7% | 59.3% | +7.4better |
| 6–9 PM | 55.0% | 51.9% | +3.1about the same | 39.3% | 52.2% | −12.9worse |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 49.6% | 51.8% | −2.2about the same | 30.7% | 51.8% | −21.1worse |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (9.27% of that day’s departures, 65% of the window’s cancellations), Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (16.50% of that day’s departures, 53% of the window’s cancellations), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (22.11% of that day’s departures, 54% of the window’s cancellations).
JFK beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts JFK’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether JFK did better or worse than the network.
| Year | JFK on time | JFK, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 69.9% | +1.9 | 73.9% | +2.9 |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 79.7% | +11.0 | 82.2% | +11.7 |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 70.3% | +2.2 | 73.5% | +2.3 |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 66.9% | +0.3 | 73.1% | +3.2 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at JFK, or the network view.