Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at IAH
George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston, TX. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against IAH’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were about the same in two and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 14.6 points below usual in 2024 to 1.3 points above usual in 2023.
1.44% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 2.91% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 3,063 | 82.5% | 81.2% | +1.3about the same | 0.16% | 3.01% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 3,291 | 67.4% | 82.0% | −14.6worse | 3.16% | 2.90% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 3,348 | 81.2% | 82.2% | −1.0about the same | 0.93% | 2.82% |
| All years3 windows | 9,702 | 77.0% | 81.8% | −4.8worse | 1.44% | 2.91% |
Day by day
December 28 (Thu, Sat, Sun) was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 60.3% on time, 20.6 points below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
No day was the best more than once: Sunday, Dec 31 in 2023, Monday, Dec 23 in 2024, and Friday, Jan 2 in 2025.
Christmas Day itself carried 14% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 88.0% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 10%, not zero.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | about the same | 84.1% | 83.3% | +0.8about the same | 0.53% | 87.5 · 89.5 · 75.9 |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 5% more | 77.1% | 82.1% | −5.0worse | 0.53% | 84.9 · 68.6 · 77.7 |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | about the same | 79.0% | 80.9% | −1.9about the same | 0.66% | 84.6 · 77.6 · 75.0 |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 2% fewer | 80.5% | 78.2% | +2.3about the same | 0.21% | 81.5 · 80.6 · 79.6 |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 2% more | 83.8% | 81.4% | +2.4better | 0.11% | 80.4 · 84.4 · 86.2 |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 14% fewer | 77.6% | 82.2% | −4.6worse | 0.77% | 74.8 · 71.7 · 85.7 |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | 14% fewer | 88.0% | 82.5% | +5.5better | 0.25% | 89.4 · 88.1 · 86.6 |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | about the same | 63.8% | 83.3% | −19.5worse | 2.07% | 76.7 · 31.7 · 83.0 |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 2% more | 72.8% | 82.0% | −9.2worse | 0.76% | 77.7 · 66.7 · 74.4 |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | about the same | 60.3% | 80.9% | −20.6worse | 7.38% | 83.3 · 20.7 · 69.1 |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 3% fewer | 66.4% | 78.2% | −11.8worse | 2.91% | 81.2 · 40.7 · 75.8 |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 2% more | 81.2% | 81.4% | −0.2about the same | 0.11% | 86.0 · 78.5 · 79.6 |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | 10% fewer | 86.8% | 82.3% | +4.5better | 0.12% | 92.2 · 82.4 · 86.3 |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 8% fewer | 84.2% | 82.5% | +1.7about the same | 0.35% | 84.8 · 85.3 · 82.5 |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | about the same | 83.0% | 83.4% | −0.4about the same | 0.65% | 81.6 · 82.0 · 85.4 |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 3% more | 76.2% | 82.0% | −5.8worse | 0.87% | 81.0 · 75.0 · 72.8 |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | about the same | 78.0% | 80.9% | −2.9worse | 1.09% | 89.0 · 73.0 · 72.5 |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | about the same | 66.6% | 78.3% | −11.7worse | 3.94% | 72.3 · 41.8 · 82.9 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at IAH were Thursday, Dec 28, 2023 (293 departures), Friday, Dec 29, 2023 (293 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (315 departures), Thursday, Jan 2, 2025 (316 departures), Tuesday, Dec 23, 2025 (321 departures), and Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (321 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 87.1%, still 1.8 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 71.8%, 7.1 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (9.3 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (1.8 points below).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 88.7%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 79.6%, still 2.2 points above usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 6–9 PM did best (+2.2 points) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM did worst (−1.7 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 87.1% | 88.9% | −1.8worse | 88.7% | 88.9% | −0.2about the same |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 77.2% | 81.9% | −4.7worse | 81.2% | 82.9% | −1.7about the same |
| 12–3 PM | 76.8% | 81.9% | −5.1worse | 80.8% | 81.3% | −0.5about the same |
| 3–6 PM | 71.8% | 78.9% | −7.1worse | 80.9% | 80.2% | +0.7about the same |
| 6–9 PM | 72.9% | 77.9% | −5.0worse | 79.6% | 77.4% | +2.2about the same |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 74.2% | 83.5% | −9.3worse | — | — | — |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Saturday, Dec 28, 2024 (20.13% of that day’s departures, 58% of the window’s cancellations) and Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (2.81% of that day’s departures, 29% of the window’s cancellations).
IAH beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts IAH’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether IAH did better or worse than the network.
| Year | IAH on time | IAH, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 82.5% | +1.3 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 67.4% | −14.6 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 81.2% | −1.0 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at IAH, or the network view.