Holiday travel
Thanksgiving at BUF
Buffalo Niagara International Airport, Buffalo, NY. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against BUF’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs the Wednesday before through the Sunday after, around Thanksgiving Day (the fourth Thursday of November). In the data: Nov 22–26, 2023; Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024; Nov 26–30, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Thanksgiving flights were about the same in two and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 15.4 points below usual in 2025 to 3.4 points above usual in 2023.
1.47% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Thanksgiving windows, against 0.93% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years and higher in one.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 262 | 84.4% | 81.0% | +3.4about the same | 0.00% | 0.94% |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 273 | 78.8% | 81.1% | −2.3about the same | 0.00% | 0.93% |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 280 | 65.7% | 81.1% | −15.4worse | 4.29% | 0.93% |
| All years3 windows | 815 | 76.2% | 81.1% | −4.9worse | 1.47% | 0.93% |
Day by day
No single day has enough flights in one year to compare the years, so the days are ranked on all three years pooled: the Sunday after Thanksgiving ran lowest (57.8% on time, 22.1 points below usual) and the Friday after Thanksgiving highest (88.2%, 6.6 points above usual). This cannot say whether the same day was worst or best in each year.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday beforeoutside the window | 3% more | 89.4% | 81.6% | +7.8better | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Tuesday beforeoutside the window | 14% more | 85.3% | 83.9% | +1.4about the same | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Wednesday before | 18% more | 85.0% | 82.4% | +2.6about the same | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Thanksgiving Day | — | — | — | — | — | — · — · — |
| Friday after | 20% fewer | 88.2% | 81.6% | +6.6better | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Saturday after | 14% more | 75.8% | 81.5% | −5.7about the same | 2.15% | — · — · — |
| Sunday after | 9% more | 57.8% | 79.9% | −22.1worse | 3.61% | — · — · — |
| Monday afteroutside the window | 5% more | 75.9% | 81.6% | −5.7about the same | 0.52% | — · — · — |
| Tuesday afteroutside the window | 2% fewer | 70.2% | 83.9% | −13.7worse | 1.23% | — · — · — |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at BUF were Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023 (62 departures), Sunday, Nov 26, 2023 (65 departures), Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 (66 departures), Sunday, Dec 1, 2024 (65 departures), Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 (65 departures), and Saturday, Nov 29, 2025 (66 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 83.2%, still 1.3 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 72.4%, 4.1 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 9 AM–12 PM the most (6.6 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 12–3 PM the least (1.2 points below).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 83.2% | 84.5% | −1.3about the same | 90.5% | 84.8% | +5.7better |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 77.2% | 83.8% | −6.6about the same | — | — | — |
| 12–3 PM | 79.4% | 80.6% | −1.2about the same | — | — | — |
| 3–6 PM | 72.4% | 76.5% | −4.1about the same | — | — | — |
| 6–9 PM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 PM–5 AM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
BUF beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts BUF’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether BUF did better or worse than the network.
| Year | BUF on time | BUF, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 84.4% | +3.4 | 83.7% | +1.9 |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 78.8% | −2.3 | 82.6% | +0.8 |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 65.7% | −15.4 | 72.8% | −9.0 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at BUF, or the network view.