Holiday travel

Memorial Day at BUF

Buffalo Niagara International Airport, Buffalo, NY. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against BUF’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs the Saturday through the Monday, around Memorial Day (the last Monday of May). In the data: May 25–27, 2024; May 24–26, 2025; May 23–25, 2026. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, Memorial Day flights were better in one, about the same in one, and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 6.7 points below usual in 2024 to 6.1 points above usual in 2025.

1.28% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Memorial Day windows, against 1.24% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in one of the three years.

Memorial Day, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2024May 25–27, 202417774.1%80.8%−6.7worse3.39%1.24%
2025May 24–26, 202517686.9%80.8%+6.1better0.00%1.24%
2026May 23–25, 202619278.9%80.8%−1.9about the same0.52%1.24%
All years3 windows54580.0%80.8%−0.8about the same1.28%1.24%

Day by day

No single day has enough flights in one year to compare the years, so the days are ranked on all three years pooled: the Sunday before Memorial Day ran lowest (75.2% on time, 3.2 points below usual) and Memorial Day highest (84.8%, 2.3 points above usual). This cannot say whether the same day was worst or best in each year.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 60%, not zero.

Memorial Day, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2024, 2025, 2026
Thursday beforeoutside the window3% more71.2%79.4%−8.2worse1.55%— · — · —
Friday beforeoutside the window3% more78.0%79.0%−1.0about the same1.55%— · — · —
Saturday before4% more79.6%81.4%−1.8about the same0.00%— · — · —
Sunday before11% fewer75.2%78.4%−3.2about the same0.00%— · — · —
Memorial Day3% more84.8%82.5%+2.3about the same3.66%— · — · —
Tuesday afteroutside the window4% more85.9%84.1%+1.8about the same0.53%— · — · —

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at BUF were Saturday, May 25, 2024 (60 departures), Monday, May 27, 2024 (63 departures), Saturday, May 24, 2025 (61 departures), Monday, May 26, 2025 (61 departures), Saturday, May 23, 2026 (66 departures), and Monday, May 25, 2026 (67 departures).

BUF has too few flights in each departure window to compare them.

Memorial Day, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM89.4%92.3%−2.9about the same89.5%92.5%−3.0about the same
9 AM–12 PM——————
12–3 PM——————
3–6 PM——————
6–9 PM——————
9 PM–5 AM——————

BUF beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts BUF’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether BUF did better or worse than the network.

Memorial Day at BUF beside all covered airports, by year
YearBUF on timeBUF, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2024May 25–27, 202474.1%−6.772.7%−2.3
2025May 24–26, 202586.9%+6.176.4%+1.4
2026May 23–25, 202678.9%−1.975.0%0.0

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at BUF, or the network view.