Holiday travel

Labor Day at BUF

Buffalo Niagara International Airport, Buffalo, NY. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against BUF’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs the Saturday through the Monday, around Labor Day (the first Monday of September). In the data: Sep 2–4, 2023; Aug 31 – Sep 2, 2024; Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, Labor Day flights were better in two and about the same in one of the three years. The gap ran from 4.3 points above usual in 2024 to 11.6 points above usual in 2023.

0.38% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Labor Day windows, against 1.93% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in all three years.

Labor Day, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Sep 2–4, 202315790.4%78.8%+11.6better0.00%1.94%
2024Aug 31 – Sep 2, 202419083.1%78.8%+4.3about the same0.53%1.92%
2025Aug 30 – Sep 1, 202517785.8%78.8%+7.0better0.56%1.92%
All years3 windows52486.2%78.8%+7.4better0.38%1.93%

Day by day

No single day has enough flights in one year to compare the years, so the days are ranked on all three years pooled: the Sunday before Labor Day ran lowest (81.9% on time, 2.6 points above usual) and Labor Day highest (88.4%, 10.6 points above usual). This cannot say whether the same day was worst or best in each year.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 70%, not zero.

Labor Day, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025
Thursday beforeoutside the windowabout the same82.2%80.1%+2.1about the same1.54%— · — · —
Friday beforeoutside the windowabout the same77.4%77.8%−0.4about the same0.00%— · — · —
Saturday before2% fewer88.0%79.5%+8.5better0.60%— · — · —
Sunday before13% fewer81.9%79.3%+2.6about the same0.60%— · — · —
Labor Day2% fewer88.4%77.8%+10.6better0.00%— · — · —
Tuesday afteroutside the windowabout the same87.8%84.7%+3.1about the same0.55%— · — · —

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at BUF were Sunday, Sep 3, 2023 (50 departures), Monday, Sep 4, 2023 (58 departures), Saturday, Aug 31, 2024 (61 departures), Monday, Sep 2, 2024 (69 departures), Saturday, Aug 30, 2025 (57 departures), and Monday, Sep 1, 2025 (63 departures).

BUF has too few flights in each departure window to compare them.

Labor Day, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM89.7%88.0%+1.7about the same———
9 AM–12 PM——————
12–3 PM——————
3–6 PM——————
6–9 PM——————
9 PM–5 AM——————

BUF beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts BUF’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether BUF did better or worse than the network.

Labor Day at BUF beside all covered airports, by year
YearBUF on timeBUF, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Sep 2–4, 202390.4%+11.687.4%+7.6
2024Aug 31 – Sep 2, 202483.1%+4.382.1%+2.4
2025Aug 30 – Sep 1, 202585.8%+7.082.2%+2.5

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at BUF, or the network view.