Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at BUF
Buffalo Niagara International Airport, Buffalo, NY. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against BUF’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in two and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 12.6 points below usual in 2025 to 11.9 points above usual in 2023.
4.61% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 4.47% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years and higher in one.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 488 | 84.4% | 72.5% | +11.9better | 1.43% | 4.76% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 539 | 78.8% | 72.6% | +6.2better | 0.00% | 4.41% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 555 | 60.3% | 72.9% | −12.6worse | 11.89% | 4.28% |
| All years3 windows | 1,582 | 74.6% | 72.7% | +1.9about the same | 4.61% | 4.47% |
Day by day
No single day has enough flights in one year to compare the years, so the days are ranked on all three years pooled: December 27 ran lowest (61.0% on time, 12.6 points below usual) and December 24 highest (84.2%, 10.3 points above usual). This cannot say whether the same day was worst or best in each year.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 11% more | 63.9% | 72.3% | −8.4worse | 2.35% | — · — · — |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 13% more | 67.1% | 73.6% | −6.5about the same | 0.58% | — · — · — |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 5% more | 65.6% | 69.3% | −3.7about the same | 0.61% | — · — · — |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | about the same | 78.4% | 73.2% | +5.2about the same | 1.22% | — · — · — |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 6% more | 81.1% | 73.1% | +8.0better | 1.24% | — · — · — |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 19% fewer | 84.2% | 73.9% | +10.3better | 0.83% | — · — · — |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | — | — | — | — | — | — · — · — |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | about the same | 70.3% | 72.3% | −2.0about the same | 6.45% | — · — · — |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 6% more | 61.0% | 73.6% | −12.6worse | 3.75% | — · — · — |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | about the same | 69.9% | 69.3% | +0.6about the same | 0.64% | — · — · — |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 3% fewer | 70.7% | 72.7% | −2.0about the same | 25.64% | — · — · — |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 2% more | 70.5% | 73.1% | −2.6about the same | 3.23% | — · — · — |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | 19% fewer | 71.6% | 73.8% | −2.2about the same | 4.10% | — · — · — |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 18% fewer | 73.2% | 72.8% | +0.4about the same | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 3% fewer | 79.1% | 72.4% | +6.7about the same | 0.67% | — · — · — |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | about the same | 61.3% | 73.5% | −12.2worse | 0.66% | — · — · — |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 3% fewer | 65.6% | 69.4% | −3.8about the same | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 9% fewer | 77.9% | 73.0% | +4.9about the same | 0.68% | — · — · — |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at BUF were Saturday, Dec 23, 2023 (49 departures), Tuesday, Dec 26, 2023 (47 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (57 departures), Saturday, Dec 28, 2024 (56 departures), Saturday, Dec 27, 2025 (59 departures), and Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (57 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 80.9%, 4.4 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 68.0%.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+4.9 points) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM did worst (−5.1 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 80.9% | 76.5% | +4.4better | — | — | — |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 71.6% | 76.7% | −5.1about the same | — | — | — |
| 12–3 PM | 73.6% | 71.0% | +2.6about the same | — | — | — |
| 3–6 PM | 72.5% | 67.6% | +4.9about the same | — | — | — |
| 6–9 PM | 68.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 PM–5 AM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
BUF beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts BUF’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether BUF did better or worse than the network.
| Year | BUF on time | BUF, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 84.4% | +11.9 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 78.8% | +6.2 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 60.3% | −12.6 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at BUF, or the network view.