Holiday travel

July 4 at ATL

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Atlanta, GA. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against ATL’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in three and about the same in one of the four years. The gap ran from 1.0 point below usual in 2026 to 13.6 points above usual in 2024.

0.87% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 2.40% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in all four years.

July 4, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Jul 1–5, 20234,27976.7%70.1%+6.6better0.28%2.25%
2024Jul 1–5, 20244,28683.5%69.9%+13.6better0.21%2.12%
2025Jul 1–5, 20254,05578.5%70.7%+7.8better1.33%2.38%
2026Jul 1–5, 20264,16967.5%68.5%−1.0about the same1.70%2.86%
All years4 windows16,78976.6%69.8%+6.8better0.87%2.40%

Day by day

July 1 (Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 71.6% on time, about level with what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 was the best day of the window in three of the four years. Over the years it ran 84.7% on time, 15.2 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 20% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 84.7% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 20%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

July 4, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window5% fewer66.6%65.8%+0.8about the same6.63%— · 71.4 · 30.0 · 87.7
Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window7% fewer73.6%67.3%+6.3better0.80%— · 81.8 · 48.0 · 90.3
Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window9% fewer77.4%67.9%+9.5better0.91%— · 71.5 · 73.2 · 88.0
Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed7% fewer71.6%71.5%+0.1about the same1.57%63.8 · 83.1 · 58.3 · 79.9
Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu10% fewer82.4%70.3%+12.1better0.26%71.0 · 91.0 · 82.6 · 84.9
Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri11% fewer74.1%68.9%+5.2better0.92%78.0 · 91.6 · 78.2 · 46.0
July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat20% fewer84.7%69.5%+15.2better0.40%87.4 · 88.9 · 88.0 · 73.2
Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun8% fewer71.2%68.7%+2.5better1.13%83.2 · 61.0 · 86.1 · 54.3
Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window2% fewer72.6%67.4%+5.2better0.67%76.1 · 69.0 · 76.6 · 68.4
Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window2% fewer69.4%66.9%+2.5better1.08%70.0 · 57.8 · 75.9 · 74.5
Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the windowabout the same75.1%71.5%+3.6better1.18%72.2 · 63.8 · 79.9 · 85.8

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at ATL were Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (870 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (939 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (890 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (952 departures), Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (841 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (862 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (857 departures), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (919 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 92.2%, 5.3 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 59.4%, still 4.7 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 12–3 PM the most (8.1 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 6–9 PM the least (4.7 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 91.7%, 4.2 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 60.0%, still 5.6 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 12–3 PM the most (9.3 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (4.2 points above).

July 4, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM92.2%86.9%+5.3better91.7%87.5%+4.2better
9 AM–12 PM88.9%82.0%+6.9better89.2%82.6%+6.6better
12–3 PM82.3%74.2%+8.1better83.3%74.0%+9.3better
3–6 PM66.8%60.5%+6.3better66.6%59.7%+6.9better
6–9 PM59.4%54.7%+4.7better60.0%54.4%+5.6better
9 PM–5 AM67.3%59.4%+7.9better62.4%57.9%+4.5better

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (5.23% of that day’s departures, 81% of the window’s cancellations) and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (3.81% of that day’s departures, 49% of the window’s cancellations).

ATL beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts ATL’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether ATL did better or worse than the network.

July 4 at ATL beside all covered airports, by year
YearATL on timeATL, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Jul 1–5, 202376.7%+6.673.9%+2.9
2024Jul 1–5, 202483.5%+13.682.2%+11.7
2025Jul 1–5, 202578.5%+7.873.5%+2.3
2026Jul 1–5, 202667.5%−1.073.1%+3.2

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at ATL, or the network view.