Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at SFO
San Francisco International Airport, San Francisco, CA. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against SFO’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Christmas to New Year’s flights ran worse than ordinary days in all three years. The gap ran from 16.0 points below usual in 2025 to 3.5 points below usual in 2023.
0.83% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 1.58% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 3,827 | 77.3% | 80.8% | −3.5worse | 0.24% | 1.70% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 4,370 | 77.8% | 81.6% | −3.8worse | 0.76% | 1.54% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 4,301 | 66.1% | 82.1% | −16.0worse | 1.44% | 1.52% |
| All years3 windows | 12,498 | 73.6% | 81.5% | −7.9worse | 0.83% | 1.58% |
Day by day
December 26 (Tue, Thu, Fri) was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 61.1% on time, 23.3 points below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
No day was the best more than once: Sunday, Dec 24 in 2023, Wednesday, Dec 25 in 2024, and Wednesday, Dec 31 in 2025.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 30%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 10% more | 70.1% | 84.3% | −14.2worse | 0.84% | 60.2 · 85.1 · 63.4 |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 11% more | 63.7% | 80.6% | −16.9worse | 1.18% | 46.8 · 69.3 · 73.4 |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 8% more | 60.8% | 80.7% | −19.9worse | 2.73% | 77.1 · 60.2 · 46.1 |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 5% more | 65.1% | 77.8% | −12.7worse | 0.42% | 69.1 · 70.5 · 56.1 |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 11% more | 73.2% | 80.6% | −7.4worse | 1.28% | 85.0 · 79.9 · 55.9 |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 5% fewer | 83.6% | 82.1% | +1.5about the same | 0.10% | 89.7 · 87.5 · 74.3 |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | 6% fewer | 80.7% | 81.7% | −1.0about the same | 0.48% | 86.4 · 93.8 · 61.2 |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | 10% more | 61.1% | 84.4% | −23.3worse | 2.09% | 82.8 · 60.1 · 41.8 |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 11% more | 63.3% | 80.6% | −17.3worse | 0.42% | 44.8 · 69.6 · 73.8 |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | 8% more | 75.5% | 80.7% | −5.2worse | 0.60% | 78.5 · 75.8 · 72.7 |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 5% more | 58.9% | 77.8% | −18.9worse | 1.17% | 55.3 · 52.8 · 68.3 |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 11% more | 82.8% | 80.6% | +2.2about the same | 0.51% | 81.4 · 86.4 · 80.4 |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | about the same | 82.5% | 82.2% | +0.3about the same | 0.57% | 86.6 · 82.6 · 78.8 |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | about the same | 79.5% | 81.8% | −2.3about the same | 0.45% | 88.1 · 88.4 · 62.2 |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 9% more | 72.2% | 84.3% | −12.1worse | 1.26% | 76.2 · 83.1 · 57.7 |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 10% more | 64.8% | 80.7% | −15.9worse | 3.68% | 73.8 · 72.9 · 45.8 |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 6% more | 73.3% | 80.7% | −7.4worse | 1.30% | 91.8 · 78.8 · 51.0 |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 4% more | 71.6% | 77.8% | −6.2worse | 1.95% | 91.0 · 78.2 · 47.4 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at SFO were Thursday, Dec 28, 2023 (369 departures), Friday, Dec 29, 2023 (368 departures), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (421 departures), Monday, Dec 30, 2024 (421 departures), Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (413 departures), and Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025 (414 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.3%, still 2.4 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 67.7%, 9.9 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 6–9 PM the most (12.2 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (2.4 points below).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 83.4%, still 4.9 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 60.6%, 17.6 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 12–3 PM the most (17.6 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (4.9 points below).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 85.3% | 87.7% | −2.4worse | 83.4% | 88.3% | −4.9worse |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 73.1% | 79.2% | −6.1worse | 67.2% | 80.5% | −13.3worse |
| 12–3 PM | 67.7% | 77.6% | −9.9worse | 60.6% | 78.2% | −17.6worse |
| 3–6 PM | 68.0% | 79.6% | −11.6worse | 73.1% | 79.4% | −6.3worse |
| 6–9 PM | 68.4% | 80.6% | −12.2worse | 69.5% | 79.8% | −10.3worse |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 73.2% | 83.2% | −10.0worse | 73.9% | 83.5% | −9.6worse |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Sunday, Dec 29, 2024 (1.69% of that day’s departures, 21% of the window’s cancellations) and Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (4.14% of that day’s departures, 27% of the window’s cancellations).
SFO beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts SFO’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether SFO did better or worse than the network.
| Year | SFO on time | SFO, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 77.3% | −3.5 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 77.8% | −3.8 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 66.1% | −16.0 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at SFO, or the network view.