Holiday travel

Thanksgiving at PDX

Portland International Airport, Portland, OR. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against PDX’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs the Wednesday before through the Sunday after, around Thanksgiving Day (the fourth Thursday of November). In the data: Nov 22–26, 2023; Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024; Nov 26–30, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, Thanksgiving flights were about the same in two and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 3.6 points below usual in 2025 to 0.6 points above usual in 2024.

0.33% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Thanksgiving windows, against 0.59% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.

Thanksgiving, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Nov 22–26, 202377785.4%85.3%+0.1about the same0.00%0.59%
2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 202480385.9%85.3%+0.6about the same0.12%0.59%
2025Nov 26–30, 202581881.7%85.3%−3.6worse0.86%0.59%
All years3 windows2,39884.3%85.3%−1.0about the same0.33%0.59%

Day by day

The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 76.8% on time, 7.0 points below an ordinary Sunday.

The Wednesday before Thanksgiving was the best day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 87.8% on time, 1.4 points above an ordinary Wednesday.

Thanksgiving Day itself carried 45% fewer departures than an ordinary Thursday and ran 93.5% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 60%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

Thanksgiving, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025
Monday beforeoutside the window3% more82.6%84.4%−1.8about the same0.19%83.4 · 83.2 · 81.2
Tuesday beforeoutside the window15% more88.7%88.6%+0.1about the same0.76%89.8 · 89.3 · 87.0
Wednesday before18% more87.8%86.4%+1.4about the same0.18%91.9 · 86.4 · 85.3
Thanksgiving Day45% fewer93.5%85.5%+8.0better0.36%— · — · —
Friday after2% fewer83.9%83.5%+0.4about the same0.00%83.1 · 87.3 · 81.3
Saturday after20% more84.2%87.6%−3.4worse0.57%78.9 · 92.1 · 81.1
Sunday after8% more76.8%83.8%−7.0worse0.54%80.7 · 75.5 · 74.5
Monday afteroutside the window4% more79.3%84.4%−5.1worse0.37%84.8 · 72.2 · 81.2
Tuesday afteroutside the window3% fewer79.4%88.6%−9.2worse0.23%81.3 · 73.8 · 82.8

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at PDX were Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023 (173 departures), Sunday, Nov 26, 2023 (177 departures), Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 (185 departures), Sunday, Dec 1, 2024 (188 departures), Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 (184 departures), and Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 (187 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 87.0%, still 1.7 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 77.8%, 1.6 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 12–3 PM did best (+3.3 points) and those leaving 9 PM–5 AM did worst (−4.5 points).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.9%, still 2.0 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 76.5%, 2.7 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 12–3 PM did best (+4.9 points) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM did worst (−6.9 points).

Thanksgiving, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM87.0%88.7%−1.7about the same85.9%87.9%−2.0about the same
9 AM–12 PM86.4%86.4%0.0about the same80.7%87.6%−6.9worse
12–3 PM86.3%83.0%+3.3about the same85.9%81.0%+4.9about the same
3–6 PM80.8%84.3%−3.5about the same78.0%84.7%−6.7about the same
6–9 PM77.8%79.4%−1.6about the same76.5%79.2%−2.7about the same
9 PM–5 AM81.1%85.6%−4.5about the same82.8%85.7%−2.9about the same

PDX beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts PDX’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether PDX did better or worse than the network.

Thanksgiving at PDX beside all covered airports, by year
YearPDX on timePDX, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Nov 22–26, 202385.4%+0.183.7%+1.9
2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 202485.9%+0.682.6%+0.8
2025Nov 26–30, 202581.7%−3.672.8%−9.0

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at PDX, or the network view.