Holiday travel

Thanksgiving at ORD

Chicago O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, IL. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against ORD’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs the Wednesday before through the Sunday after, around Thanksgiving Day (the fourth Thursday of November). In the data: Nov 22–26, 2023; Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024; Nov 26–30, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, Thanksgiving flights were better in one and worse in two of the three years. The gap ran from 35.9 points below usual in 2025 to 1.6 points above usual in 2024.

7.44% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Thanksgiving windows, against 1.12% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years and higher in one.

Thanksgiving, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Nov 22–26, 20233,15076.0%78.4%−2.4worse0.10%1.12%
2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 20243,56780.1%78.5%+1.6better0.11%1.12%
2025Nov 26–30, 20254,49242.0%77.9%−35.9worse18.41%1.12%
All years3 windows11,20965.4%78.3%−12.9worse7.44%1.12%

Day by day

The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 38.1% on time, 37.2 points below an ordinary Sunday.

Thanksgiving Day was the best day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 92.9% on time, 18.1 points above an ordinary Thursday.

Thanksgiving Day itself carried 46% fewer departures than an ordinary Thursday and ran 92.9% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 0%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

Thanksgiving, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025
Monday beforeoutside the windowabout the same84.9%78.5%+6.4better0.12%86.9 · 85.8 · 82.8
Tuesday beforeoutside the window12% more80.7%81.5%−0.8about the same0.32%80.7 · 86.1 · 76.4
Wednesday before13% more64.5%79.2%−14.7worse0.79%88.7 · 88.5 · 28.2
Thanksgiving Day46% fewer92.9%74.8%+18.1better0.15%94.7 · 93.4 · 91.1
Friday after13% fewer81.4%78.8%+2.6better0.28%87.7 · 76.3 · 81.1
Saturday after14% more65.6%82.7%−17.1worse23.34%89.4 · 75.2 · 4.1
Sunday after11% more38.1%75.3%−37.2worse8.40%33.5 · 73.6 · 6.5
Monday afteroutside the window6% more61.4%78.5%−17.1worse6.12%77.8 · 75.1 · 35.1
Tuesday afteroutside the windowabout the same63.7%81.5%−17.8worse1.17%86.8 · 87.5 · 28.4

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at ORD were Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023 (698 departures), Sunday, Nov 26, 2023 (765 departures), Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 (810 departures), Sunday, Dec 1, 2024 (873 departures), Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 (1,021 departures), and Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 (1,099 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 71.0%, still 15.3 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 57.3%, 15.3 points below usual for that time of day.

The holiday cost flights leaving 5–9 AM the most (15.3 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 12–3 PM the least (11.1 points below).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 60.5%, still 26.0 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 44.2%, 28.0 points below usual for that time of day.

The holiday cost flights leaving 9 AM–12 PM the most (31.5 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 6–9 PM the least (18.6 points below).

Thanksgiving, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM71.0%86.3%−15.3worse60.5%86.5%−26.0worse
9 AM–12 PM66.8%81.3%−14.5worse49.0%80.5%−31.5worse
12–3 PM68.7%79.8%−11.1worse51.2%78.3%−27.1worse
3–6 PM61.0%74.7%−13.7worse46.0%73.6%−27.6worse
6–9 PM60.3%72.2%−11.9worse50.9%69.5%−18.6worse
9 PM–5 AM57.3%72.6%−15.3worse44.2%72.2%−28.0worse

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Saturday, Nov 29, 2025 (59.30% of that day’s departures, 69% of the window’s cancellations).

ORD beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts ORD’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether ORD did better or worse than the network.

Thanksgiving at ORD beside all covered airports, by year
YearORD on timeORD, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Nov 22–26, 202376.0%−2.483.7%+1.9
2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 202480.1%+1.682.6%+0.8
2025Nov 26–30, 202542.0%−35.972.8%−9.0

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at ORD, or the network view.