Holiday travel

Labor Day at ORD

Chicago O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, IL. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against ORD’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs the Saturday through the Monday, around Labor Day (the first Monday of September). In the data: Sep 2–4, 2023; Aug 31 – Sep 2, 2024; Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Labor Day flights ran better than ordinary days in all three years. The gap ran from 8.1 points above usual in 2024 to 14.7 points above usual in 2023.

0.24% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Labor Day windows, against 1.84% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in all three years.

Labor Day, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Sep 2–4, 20232,04489.7%75.0%+14.7better0.15%1.85%
2024Aug 31 – Sep 2, 20242,37483.1%75.0%+8.1better0.21%1.83%
2025Aug 30 – Sep 1, 20252,75985.1%75.0%+10.1better0.33%1.83%
All years3 windows7,17785.8%75.0%+10.8better0.24%1.84%

Day by day

Labor Day was the worst day of the window in both years. Over the years it ran 84.3% on time, still 9.4 points above an ordinary Monday.

No day was the best more than once: Saturday, Aug 31 in 2024 and Sunday, Aug 31 in 2025.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 40%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

Labor Day, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025
Thursday beforeoutside the windowabout the same78.3%75.3%+3.0better0.71%84.1 · 64.5 · 85.5
Friday beforeoutside the windowabout the same70.1%72.5%−2.4worse0.30%81.0 · 48.4 · 80.3
Saturday before6% fewer86.2%76.3%+9.9better0.32%90.0 · 84.6 · 84.8
Sunday before11% fewer87.0%74.0%+13.0better0.21%89.7 · 83.7 · 87.8
Labor Dayabout the same84.3%74.9%+9.4better0.19%89.4 · 81.4 · 82.9
Tuesday afteroutside the windowabout the same87.0%80.4%+6.6better0.04%84.9 · 88.6 · 87.4

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at ORD were Sunday, Sep 3, 2023 (652 departures), Monday, Sep 4, 2023 (762 departures), Sunday, Sep 1, 2024 (780 departures), Monday, Sep 2, 2024 (871 departures), Sunday, Aug 31, 2025 (916 departures), and Monday, Sep 1, 2025 (1,018 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 92.2%, 7.7 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 80.6%, still 11.7 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (16.0 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (7.7 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 92.6%, 7.8 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 80.3%, still 12.6 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (15.2 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (7.8 points above).

Labor Day, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM92.2%84.5%+7.7better92.6%84.8%+7.8better
9 AM–12 PM86.8%78.4%+8.4better87.9%78.2%+9.7better
12–3 PM86.6%75.0%+11.6better86.7%74.4%+12.3better
3–6 PM80.6%68.9%+11.7better80.7%67.7%+13.0better
6–9 PM81.5%68.4%+13.1better80.3%67.7%+12.6better
9 PM–5 AM85.5%69.5%+16.0better83.2%68.0%+15.2better

ORD beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts ORD’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether ORD did better or worse than the network.

Labor Day at ORD beside all covered airports, by year
YearORD on timeORD, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Sep 2–4, 202389.7%+14.787.4%+7.6
2024Aug 31 – Sep 2, 202483.1%+8.182.1%+2.4
2025Aug 30 – Sep 1, 202585.1%+10.182.2%+2.5

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at ORD, or the network view.