Holiday travel

Christmas to New Year’s at ORD

Chicago O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, IL. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against ORD’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in two and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 12.6 points below usual in 2025 to 7.2 points above usual in 2023.

1.18% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 2.27% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.

Christmas to New Year’s, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 20247,25079.9%72.7%+7.2better0.26%2.40%
2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 20258,01676.1%73.2%+2.9better0.59%2.20%
2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 20269,44960.3%72.9%−12.6worse2.39%2.23%
All years3 windows24,71571.3%72.9%−1.6worse1.18%2.27%

Day by day

December 29 (Fri, Sun, Mon) was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 52.0% on time, 17.7 points below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

No day was the best more than once: Monday, Jan 1 in 2023, Wednesday, Dec 25 in 2024, and Wednesday, Dec 24 in 2025.

Christmas Day itself carried 20% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 90.1% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 20%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

Christmas to New Year’s, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025
Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window7% more69.1%73.2%−4.1worse1.17%91.7 · 59.6 · 61.4
Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window10% more66.7%71.4%−4.7worse0.54%88.7 · 41.9 · 71.9
Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window7% more81.0%72.7%+8.3better0.50%86.9 · 77.2 · 79.4
Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window4% more82.8%69.8%+13.0better0.37%81.9 · 85.0 · 81.7
Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue9% more85.3%73.8%+11.5better0.42%80.7 · 87.8 · 86.3
Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed18% fewer81.1%72.9%+8.2better0.22%80.1 · 75.8 · 86.7
Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu20% fewer90.1%74.0%+16.1better0.22%90.3 · 92.7 · 87.6
Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri8% more70.3%73.4%−3.1worse2.42%78.8 · 73.5 · 61.1
Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat10% more66.8%71.4%−4.6worse1.14%78.7 · 63.1 · 60.3
Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun7% more58.1%72.8%−14.7worse3.03%78.9 · 71.9 · 29.9
Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon4% more52.0%69.7%−17.7worse2.38%76.6 · 58.8 · 26.8
Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue9% more67.2%73.8%−6.6worse1.30%85.1 · 79.5 · 43.7
Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed6% fewer61.9%73.0%−11.1worse0.68%50.9 · 88.1 · 49.0
Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu2% fewer75.9%74.2%+1.7about the same0.36%90.9 · 75.2 · 65.1
Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri8% more80.6%73.3%+7.3better0.21%87.9 · 75.7 · 79.4
Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window7% more74.6%71.5%+3.1better0.60%80.5 · 78.3 · 66.6
Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window5% more83.9%72.6%+11.3better0.60%91.2 · 81.1 · 80.6
Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window3% more82.2%69.8%+12.4better3.31%89.2 · 75.1 · 82.7

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at ORD were Wednesday, Dec 27, 2023 (702 departures), Thursday, Dec 28, 2023 (705 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (798 departures), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (800 departures), Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (943 departures), and Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (944 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 77.5%, still 1.5 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 66.6%, about level with usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 6–9 PM did best (+0.7 points) and those leaving 12–3 PM did worst (−3.3 points).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 69.4%, still 9.7 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 63.3%, 5.7 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM did best (+1.6 points) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM did worst (−10.6 points).

Christmas to New Year’s, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM77.5%79.0%−1.5worse69.4%79.1%−9.7worse
9 AM–12 PM71.8%74.7%−2.9worse64.4%75.0%−10.6worse
12–3 PM71.8%75.1%−3.3worse65.2%75.4%−10.2worse
3–6 PM66.6%69.7%−3.1worse63.3%69.0%−5.7worse
6–9 PM68.4%67.7%+0.7about the same67.8%67.2%+0.6about the same
9 PM–5 AM66.6%66.3%+0.3about the same67.2%65.6%+1.6about the same

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (2.13% of that day’s departures, 36% of the window’s cancellations) and Sunday, Dec 28, 2025 (7.01% of that day’s departures, 29% of the window’s cancellations).

ORD beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts ORD’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether ORD did better or worse than the network.

Christmas to New Year’s at ORD beside all covered airports, by year
YearORD on timeORD, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 202479.9%+7.281.0%+2.2
2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 202576.1%+2.976.2%−3.4
2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 202660.3%−12.671.1%−8.5

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at ORD, or the network view.