Holiday travel
July 4 at MDW
Chicago Midway International Airport, Chicago, IL. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against MDW’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in two, about the same in one, and worse in one of the four years. The gap ran from 4.1 points below usual in 2023 to 17.4 points above usual in 2024.
1.77% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 1.44% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the four years and higher in two.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 1,192 | 61.3% | 65.4% | −4.1worse | 2.27% | 1.39% |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 1,240 | 81.6% | 64.2% | +17.4better | 0.08% | 1.55% |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 1,127 | 78.3% | 65.2% | +13.1better | 0.71% | 1.35% |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 1,121 | 63.2% | 64.1% | −0.9about the same | 4.19% | 1.48% |
| All years4 windows | 4,680 | 71.3% | 64.7% | +6.6better | 1.77% | 1.44% |
Day by day
July 2 (Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 60.0% on time, 4.3 points below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
July 4 was the best day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 81.8% on time, 16.2 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.
July 4 itself carried 18% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 81.8% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 20%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window | about the same | 63.1% | 64.5% | −1.4about the same | 0.56% | — · 56.6 · 67.8 · 66.8 |
| Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 2% fewer | 74.6% | 65.9% | +8.7better | 0.00% | — · 72.5 · 67.1 · 83.7 |
| Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | 3% fewer | 74.5% | 64.8% | +9.7better | 0.14% | — · 63.4 · 78.8 · 80.8 |
| Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed | 4% fewer | 73.3% | 66.1% | +7.2better | 0.54% | 61.8 · 82.3 · 70.0 · 75.8 |
| Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu | 3% fewer | 60.0% | 64.3% | −4.3worse | 0.31% | 26.5 · 79.1 · 68.3 · 61.9 |
| Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri | about the same | 75.1% | 63.7% | +11.4better | 3.69% | 85.8 · 82.5 · 75.6 · 51.4 |
| July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat | 18% fewer | 81.8% | 65.6% | +16.2better | 1.24% | 84.1 · 85.4 · 94.7 · 57.5 |
| Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun | about the same | 68.0% | 64.2% | +3.8better | 2.86% | 41.8 · 79.2 · 87.6 · 66.1 |
| Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window | about the same | 65.9% | 65.5% | +0.4about the same | 0.21% | 65.4 · 73.1 · 60.0 · 66.0 |
| Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window | about the same | 66.2% | 64.0% | +2.2about the same | 0.79% | 58.5 · 63.0 · 71.0 · 72.6 |
| Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the window | 2% fewer | 68.5% | 66.1% | +2.4about the same | 1.37% | 53.4 · 67.9 · 68.2 · 81.7 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at MDW were Monday, Jul 3, 2023 (261 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (262 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (265 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (269 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (241 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (257 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (246 departures), and Friday, Jul 3, 2026 (244 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 90.7%, 4.6 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 49.9%, still 7.6 points above usual for that time of day.
The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (9.4 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM the least (3.2 points above).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 91.6%, 5.3 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 50.7%, still 5.3 points above usual for that time of day.
The holiday helped flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (8.1 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 12–3 PM the least (1.5 points above).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 90.7% | 86.1% | +4.6better | 91.6% | 86.3% | +5.3better |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 80.5% | 77.3% | +3.2better | 83.2% | 76.1% | +7.1better |
| 12–3 PM | 71.1% | 65.8% | +5.3better | 65.5% | 64.0% | +1.5about the same |
| 3–6 PM | 63.8% | 54.4% | +9.4better | 59.5% | 53.2% | +6.3better |
| 6–9 PM | 55.1% | 47.1% | +8.0better | 50.7% | 45.4% | +5.3about the same |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 49.9% | 42.3% | +7.6better | 50.9% | 42.8% | +8.1better |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (8.40% of that day’s departures, 81% of the window’s cancellations) and Friday, Jul 3, 2026 (14.75% of that day’s departures, 77% of the window’s cancellations).
MDW beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts MDW’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether MDW did better or worse than the network.
| Year | MDW on time | MDW, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Jul 1–5, 2023 | 61.3% | −4.1 | 73.9% | +2.9 |
| 2024Jul 1–5, 2024 | 81.6% | +17.4 | 82.2% | +11.7 |
| 2025Jul 1–5, 2025 | 78.3% | +13.1 | 73.5% | +2.3 |
| 2026Jul 1–5, 2026 | 63.2% | −0.9 | 73.1% | +3.2 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at MDW, or the network view.