Holiday travel

Christmas to New Year’s at IND

Indianapolis International Airport, Indianapolis, IN. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against IND’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in one, about the same in one, and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 7.3 points below usual in 2025 to 4.5 points above usual in 2023.

0.72% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 1.62% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.

Christmas to New Year’s, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 20241,24483.7%79.2%+4.5better0.00%1.76%
2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 20251,31180.7%80.4%+0.3about the same0.53%1.59%
2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 20261,32972.7%80.0%−7.3worse1.58%1.52%
All years3 windows3,88478.9%79.9%−1.0about the same0.72%1.62%

Day by day

December 29 (Fri, Sun, Mon) was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 59.4% on time, 17.8 points below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

December 23 (Sat, Mon, Tue) was the best day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 90.0% on time, 11.3 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

Christmas Day itself carried 25% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 93.1% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 30%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

Christmas to New Year’s, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025
Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window7% more71.5%80.5%−9.0worse1.28%— · 89.2 · 37.6
Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window10% more75.9%78.6%−2.7about the same0.78%95.2 · 67.9 · 65.0
Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window9% more83.8%78.9%+4.9better0.51%91.3 · 73.3 · 87.1
Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window6% more86.1%77.2%+8.9better0.25%90.1 · 81.0 · 87.3
Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue11% more90.0%78.7%+11.3better0.00%91.1 · 91.8 · 87.2
Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed17% fewer83.9%80.8%+3.1about the same0.34%— · — · —
Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu25% fewer93.1%83.0%+10.1better0.00%— · — · —
Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri6% more73.6%80.5%−6.9worse2.31%72.1 · 75.4 · 73.2
Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat8% more70.2%78.7%−8.5worse1.32%66.1 · 74.2 · 70.0
Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun6% more70.2%78.8%−8.6worse0.79%— · 67.7 · 60.8
Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon2% more59.4%77.2%−17.8worse1.29%83.6 · 60.0 · 36.2
Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue9% more77.9%78.7%−0.8about the same0.52%89.3 · 85.3 · 60.0
Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed11% fewer79.9%80.9%−1.0about the same0.00%— · — · —
Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu18% fewer90.4%83.0%+7.4better0.00%— · — · —
Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri5% more86.9%80.4%+6.5better0.78%90.8 · 89.7 · 80.7
Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window5% more79.0%78.5%+0.5about the same0.00%— · 81.5 · 78.6
Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the windowabout the same81.4%78.7%+2.7about the same0.55%— · 76.3 · 77.3
Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window3% fewer79.6%77.3%+2.3about the same9.95%— · 57.7 · 86.4

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at IND were Saturday, Dec 23, 2023 (123 departures), Wednesday, Dec 27, 2023 (124 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (134 departures), Sunday, Dec 29, 2024 (134 departures), Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (134 departures), and Friday, Jan 2, 2026 (137 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 87.6%, 2.4 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 67.8%, 3.8 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (+2.4 points) and those leaving 6–9 PM did worst (−3.8 points).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 86.4%, 3.3 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 12–3 PM had the lowest: 74.5%, 3.0 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (+3.3 points) and those leaving 12–3 PM did worst (−3.0 points).

Christmas to New Year’s, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM87.6%85.2%+2.4better86.4%83.1%+3.3about the same
9 AM–12 PM81.7%83.4%−1.7about the same———
12–3 PM76.0%79.3%−3.3about the same74.5%77.5%−3.0about the same
3–6 PM72.5%75.4%−2.9about the same74.6%73.5%+1.1about the same
6–9 PM67.8%71.6%−3.8about the same———
9 PM–5 AM——————

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (5.22% of that day’s departures, 33% of the window’s cancellations).

IND beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts IND’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether IND did better or worse than the network.

Christmas to New Year’s at IND beside all covered airports, by year
YearIND on timeIND, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 202483.7%+4.581.0%+2.2
2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 202580.7%+0.376.2%−3.4
2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 202672.7%−7.371.1%−8.5

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at IND, or the network view.