Holiday travel

July 4 at DFW

Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, Dallas–Fort Worth, TX. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against DFW’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in three and about the same in one of the four years. The gap ran from 1.1 points below usual in 2025 to 10.0 points above usual in 2023.

0.32% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 2.29% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in all four years.

July 4, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Jul 1–5, 20233,90474.1%64.1%+10.0better0.31%2.47%
2024Jul 1–5, 20244,19873.0%64.7%+8.3better0.10%1.96%
2025Jul 1–5, 20254,34765.3%66.4%−1.1about the same0.51%2.09%
2026Jul 1–5, 20264,34973.6%64.3%+9.3better0.37%2.66%
All years4 windows16,79871.4%64.9%+6.5better0.32%2.29%

Day by day

July 5 (Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 67.0% on time, still 3.0 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 3 (Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri) was the best day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 73.2% on time, 8.8 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 25% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 81.2% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 30%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

July 4, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the windowabout the same69.6%63.2%+6.4better1.28%— · 71.9 · 64.8 · 71.8
Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same71.7%62.1%+9.6better0.46%— · 71.2 · 63.7 · 80.3
Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the windowabout the same64.5%62.0%+2.5better1.54%— · 65.2 · 52.2 · 76.8
Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed5% fewer69.4%65.3%+4.1better0.52%61.7 · 72.3 · 70.0 · 72.9
Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu3% fewer68.4%64.9%+3.5better0.22%68.0 · 74.8 · 56.7 · 73.6
Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri7% fewer73.2%64.4%+8.8better0.26%77.4 · 79.8 · 58.6 · 78.5
July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat25% fewer81.2%66.3%+14.9better0.14%83.4 · 90.0 · 70.9 · 81.5
Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun6% fewer67.0%64.0%+3.0better0.43%80.8 · 49.7 · 72.0 · 64.3
Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same65.0%63.1%+1.9better0.73%62.7 · 75.4 · 61.6 · 60.4
Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window3% fewer58.1%62.3%−4.2worse1.21%66.0 · 57.9 · 40.7 · 70.3
Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the windowabout the same60.6%65.3%−4.7worse6.28%68.7 · 41.3 · 49.8 · 81.6

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at DFW were Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (807 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (833 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (934 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (930 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (917 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (962 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (954 departures), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (951 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 86.5%, 3.8 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 59.8%, still 7.2 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (7.9 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (3.8 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.6%, 3.0 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 56.7%, still 2.1 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 12–3 PM the most (9.6 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 3–6 PM the least (2.1 points above).

July 4, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM86.5%82.7%+3.8better85.6%82.6%+3.0better
9 AM–12 PM78.4%73.7%+4.7better77.8%73.1%+4.7better
12–3 PM72.5%64.9%+7.6better73.1%63.5%+9.6better
3–6 PM63.0%56.9%+6.1better56.7%54.6%+2.1about the same
6–9 PM59.8%52.6%+7.2better57.6%51.2%+6.4better
9 PM–5 AM63.8%55.9%+7.9better62.0%54.2%+7.8better

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (1.44% of that day’s departures, 55% of the window’s cancellations).

DFW beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts DFW’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether DFW did better or worse than the network.

July 4 at DFW beside all covered airports, by year
YearDFW on timeDFW, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Jul 1–5, 202374.1%+10.073.9%+2.9
2024Jul 1–5, 202473.0%+8.382.2%+11.7
2025Jul 1–5, 202565.3%−1.173.5%+2.3
2026Jul 1–5, 202673.6%+9.373.1%+3.2

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at DFW, or the network view.