Holiday travel

July 4 at DEN

Denver International Airport, Denver, CO. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against DEN’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in three and about the same in one of the four years. The gap ran from 1.2 points below usual in 2023 to 17.7 points above usual in 2024.

1.00% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 1.29% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in three of the four years and higher in one.

July 4, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Jul 1–5, 20233,83766.3%67.5%−1.2about the same3.23%1.09%
2024Jul 1–5, 20244,43383.3%65.6%+17.7better0.29%1.30%
2025Jul 1–5, 20254,51568.9%66.2%+2.7better0.44%1.36%
2026Jul 1–5, 20264,56474.7%65.7%+9.0better0.37%1.40%
All years4 windows17,34973.6%66.2%+7.4better1.00%1.29%

Day by day

July 5 (Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 66.3% on time, about level with what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 was the best day of the window in three of the four years. Over the years it ran 81.2% on time, 15.1 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 16% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 81.2% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 40%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

July 4, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the window2% more71.1%66.8%+4.3better0.46%— · 73.3 · 76.5 · 64.1
Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window2% more69.6%68.2%+1.4about the same0.25%— · 70.4 · 59.8 · 78.5
Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the windowabout the same70.8%66.7%+4.1better0.35%— · 74.7 · 74.9 · 62.4
Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed3% fewer70.1%67.8%+2.3better0.43%68.7 · 77.2 · 54.8 · 78.7
Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu4% fewer74.6%65.5%+9.1better0.36%69.8 · 81.7 · 78.2 · 68.4
Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri4% fewer76.5%65.1%+11.4better0.41%81.8 · 79.0 · 77.8 · 68.6
July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat16% fewer81.2%66.1%+15.1better2.87%67.4 · 91.6 · 79.2 · 84.9
Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun5% fewer66.3%66.6%−0.3about the same1.21%45.1 · 88.2 · 52.5 · 76.6
Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same62.8%67.3%−4.5worse3.13%47.0 · 79.7 · 55.0 · 68.3
Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window2% fewer62.1%66.0%−3.9worse0.71%69.5 · 65.5 · 52.5 · 62.3
Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the window2% fewer60.9%67.8%−6.9worse2.09%55.7 · 80.6 · 47.8 · 58.0

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at DEN were Monday, Jul 3, 2023 (769 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (834 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (929 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (929 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (931 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (986 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (1,001 departures), and Friday, Jul 3, 2026 (976 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 90.7%, 3.6 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 58.8%, still 11.7 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 6–9 PM the most (11.7 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (3.6 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 89.8%, 3.2 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 56.2%, still 10.3 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (11.2 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM the least (2.6 points above).

July 4, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM90.7%87.1%+3.6better89.8%86.6%+3.2better
9 AM–12 PM82.8%77.2%+5.6better79.6%77.0%+2.6better
12–3 PM78.5%70.6%+7.9better75.6%70.4%+5.2better
3–6 PM61.3%54.2%+7.1better64.1%52.9%+11.2better
6–9 PM58.8%47.1%+11.7better56.2%45.9%+10.3better
9 PM–5 AM60.5%54.4%+6.1better62.5%53.0%+9.5better

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Tuesday, Jul 4, 2023 (11.32% of that day’s departures, 69% of the window’s cancellations) and Saturday, Jul 5, 2025 (0.84% of that day’s departures, 35% of the window’s cancellations).

DEN beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts DEN’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether DEN did better or worse than the network.

July 4 at DEN beside all covered airports, by year
YearDEN on timeDEN, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Jul 1–5, 202366.3%−1.273.9%+2.9
2024Jul 1–5, 202483.3%+17.782.2%+11.7
2025Jul 1–5, 202568.9%+2.773.5%+2.3
2026Jul 1–5, 202674.7%+9.073.1%+3.2

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at DEN, or the network view.