Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at DCA
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, Washington, DC. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against DCA’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in two and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 1.7 points below usual in 2025 to 10.6 points above usual in 2023.
0.77% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 3.42% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in all three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 3,202 | 86.0% | 75.4% | +10.6better | 0.56% | 3.55% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 3,359 | 78.6% | 76.0% | +2.6better | 0.21% | 3.40% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 3,443 | 74.2% | 75.9% | −1.7worse | 1.51% | 3.31% |
| All years3 windows | 10,004 | 79.4% | 75.8% | +3.6better | 0.77% | 3.42% |
Day by day
No day was the worst more than once: Wednesday, Dec 27 in 2023, Tuesday, Dec 24 in 2024, and Monday, Dec 29 in 2025.
No day was the best more than once: Sunday, Dec 24 in 2023, Monday, Dec 30 in 2024, and Friday, Jan 2 in 2025.
Christmas Day itself carried 42% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 92.7% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 40%, not zero.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 4% fewer | 74.3% | 76.1% | −1.8about the same | 1.39% | 86.6 · 80.9 · 53.0 |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 4% fewer | 78.8% | 77.0% | +1.8about the same | 1.24% | 94.2 · 70.7 · 70.4 |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 6% fewer | 82.2% | 76.2% | +6.0better | 0.20% | 96.4 · 74.7 · 73.9 |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 10% fewer | 86.9% | 71.1% | +15.8better | 0.09% | 90.6 · 83.3 · 86.5 |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 9% fewer | 81.3% | 75.8% | +5.5better | 0.60% | 88.8 · 79.5 · 76.9 |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 36% fewer | 75.0% | 75.6% | −0.6about the same | 0.39% | 92.0 · 45.4 · 87.7 |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | 42% fewer | 92.7% | 77.6% | +15.1better | 0.43% | 90.6 · 95.0 · 92.8 |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | 16% fewer | 73.5% | 76.0% | −2.5about the same | 2.30% | 75.9 · 76.7 · 67.8 |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 14% fewer | 71.6% | 77.0% | −5.4worse | 0.64% | 73.2 · 73.0 · 68.4 |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | 13% fewer | 71.1% | 76.1% | −5.0worse | 1.28% | 77.2 · 69.6 · 66.9 |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 17% fewer | 71.0% | 71.1% | −0.1about the same | 1.64% | 89.2 · 67.1 · 57.7 |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 13% fewer | 82.5% | 75.8% | +6.7better | 0.41% | 89.9 · 88.2 · 70.4 |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | 32% fewer | 86.3% | 75.7% | +10.6better | 0.12% | 90.0 · 87.2 · 82.0 |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 23% fewer | 82.6% | 77.8% | +4.8better | 0.32% | 90.5 · 89.7 · 68.4 |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 17% fewer | 89.4% | 75.9% | +13.5better | 0.00% | 91.6 · 92.2 · 84.7 |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 15% fewer | 80.4% | 77.0% | +3.4better | 0.43% | 89.0 · 73.0 · 80.0 |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 12% fewer | 83.0% | 75.9% | +7.1better | 0.11% | 95.3 · 80.8 · 74.7 |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 14% fewer | 80.2% | 71.1% | +9.1better | 2.86% | 91.2 · 75.5 · 75.4 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at DCA were Tuesday, Dec 26, 2023 (326 departures), Tuesday, Jan 2, 2024 (322 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (352 departures), Monday, Dec 30, 2024 (339 departures), Tuesday, Dec 23, 2025 (354 departures), and Friday, Jan 2, 2026 (340 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 87.7%, 4.7 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 74.0%, still 2.8 points above usual for that time of day.
The holiday helped flights leaving 5–9 AM the most (4.7 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM the least (1.5 points above).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 91.7%, 12.0 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 75.2%, still 5.9 points above usual for that time of day.
The holiday helped flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (13.4 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 6–9 PM the least (5.4 points above).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 87.7% | 83.0% | +4.7better | 91.7% | 79.7% | +12.0better |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 81.6% | 80.1% | +1.5about the same | 84.5% | 77.7% | +6.8better |
| 12–3 PM | 77.0% | 73.8% | +3.2better | 82.5% | 71.8% | +10.7better |
| 3–6 PM | 74.0% | 71.2% | +2.8better | 75.2% | 69.3% | +5.9better |
| 6–9 PM | 74.2% | 71.8% | +2.4about the same | 77.5% | 72.1% | +5.4better |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 77.6% | — | — | 83.8% | 70.4% | +13.4better |
Cancellations
The worst day for cancellations in each year was Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (4.42% of that day’s departures, 29% of the window’s cancellations).
DCA beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts DCA’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether DCA did better or worse than the network.
| Year | DCA on time | DCA, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 86.0% | +10.6 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 78.6% | +2.6 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 74.2% | −1.7 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at DCA, or the network view.