Holiday travel

July 4 at DAL

Dallas Love Field, Dallas, TX. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against DAL’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in three and about the same in one of the four years. The gap ran from 3.0 points above usual in 2026 to 18.4 points above usual in 2024.

0.64% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 0.93% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the four years and higher in one.

July 4, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Jul 1–5, 20231,03176.9%66.6%+10.3better0.48%0.82%
2024Jul 1–5, 202495785.3%66.9%+18.4better0.00%0.96%
2025Jul 1–5, 202596271.4%67.7%+3.7better0.21%0.96%
2026Jul 1–5, 202695268.4%65.4%+3.0about the same1.89%0.98%
All years4 windows3,90275.6%66.7%+8.9better0.64%0.93%

Day by day

July 2 (Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu) was the worst day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 70.8% on time, still 4.9 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 was the best day of the window in three of the four years. Over the years it ran 88.2% on time, 20.3 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 21% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 88.2% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero. A dashed stub is a day with too few flights to print a rate.

July 4, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the windowabout the same71.4%64.8%+6.6better0.66%— · 78.2 · 68.3 · 66.8
Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same74.8%65.2%+9.6better0.16%— · 75.4 · 66.8 · 82.4
Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the windowabout the same71.1%65.4%+5.7better0.16%— · 73.1 · 70.0 · 70.2
Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed3% fewer76.8%68.2%+8.6better0.25%76.3 · 86.0 · 78.2 · 66.5
Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thuabout the same70.8%65.9%+4.9better0.12%68.5 · 94.7 · 58.8 · 61.2
Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Friabout the same76.2%65.9%+10.3better0.24%84.1 · 86.4 · 58.8 · 75.1
July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat21% fewer88.2%67.9%+20.3better0.61%87.1 · 92.6 · 89.3 · 84.1
Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun5% fewer68.0%65.6%+2.4about the same2.05%68.4 · 66.3 · 77.4 · 59.5
Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same64.6%65.3%−0.7about the same0.36%64.6 · 71.7 · 61.5 · 60.6
Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the windowabout the same63.5%65.3%−1.8about the same0.47%73.8 · 64.9 · 53.1 · 62.0
Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the windowabout the same65.5%68.1%−2.6about the same6.45%62.8 · 63.8 · 59.2 · 74.9

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at DAL were Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (214 departures), Monday, Jul 3, 2023 (214 departures), Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024 (208 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (215 departures), Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (205 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (211 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (206 departures), and Friday, Jul 3, 2026 (206 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 94.7%, 6.3 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 54.6%, still 8.9 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (10.8 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (6.3 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 93.6%, 5.4 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 9 PM–5 AM had the lowest: 57.9%, still 12.0 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 6–9 PM the most (13.6 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM the least (4.0 points above).

July 4, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM94.7%88.4%+6.3better93.6%88.2%+5.4better
9 AM–12 PM85.1%77.6%+7.5better81.3%77.3%+4.0about the same
12–3 PM75.5%68.3%+7.2better80.4%67.1%+13.3better
3–6 PM65.6%54.8%+10.8better66.9%54.5%+12.4better
6–9 PM58.9%48.2%+10.7better61.7%48.1%+13.6better
9 PM–5 AM54.6%45.7%+8.9better57.9%45.9%+12.0better

DAL beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts DAL’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether DAL did better or worse than the network.

July 4 at DAL beside all covered airports, by year
YearDAL on timeDAL, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Jul 1–5, 202376.9%+10.373.9%+2.9
2024Jul 1–5, 202485.3%+18.482.2%+11.7
2025Jul 1–5, 202571.4%+3.773.5%+2.3
2026Jul 1–5, 202668.4%+3.073.1%+3.2

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at DAL, or the network view.