Holiday travel

July 4 at CMH

John Glenn Columbus International Airport, Columbus, OH. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against CMH’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.

History, not a forecast. This shows what happened in past holiday windows. It cannot say what this year will bring, and each holiday appears only a few times in the data, so one bad storm can decide a whole year. Check your airline for your own flight.

The window, year by year

The window runs July 1 through July 5, around July 4, whatever weekday it falls on. In the data: Jul 1–5, 2023; Jul 1–5, 2024; Jul 1–5, 2025; Jul 1–5, 2026. July 4 fell on a Tuesday in 2023, Thursday in 2024, Friday in 2025, and Saturday in 2026. Four windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.

Compared with ordinary days, July 4 flights were better in two and about the same in two of the four years. The gap ran from 1.5 points above usual in 2025 to 8.1 points above usual in 2024.

2.71% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 2.71% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in one of the four years and higher in one.

July 4, the whole window in each year against ordinary days
YearDeparturesOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledUsual
2023Jul 1–5, 202354579.9%77.6%+2.3about the same2.02%2.66%
2024Jul 1–5, 202458286.1%78.0%+8.1better0.86%2.84%
2025Jul 1–5, 202559379.2%77.7%+1.5about the same4.72%2.63%
2026Jul 1–5, 202660281.9%76.2%+5.7better3.16%2.71%
All years4 windows2,32281.8%77.4%+4.4better2.71%2.71%

Day by day

July 1 (Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed) was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 77.6% on time, 1.0 point below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 3 (Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri) was the best day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 86.3% on time, 9.0 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 21% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 85.8% on time.

  • Better than usual
  • Worse than usual
  • About the same
  • What ordinary days of the same weekday had
  • Lowest to highest single year
  • Lighter bars: days just outside the window

Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 60%, not zero.

July 4, every day of the window and the days around it
DayDepartures against an ordinary dayOn timeUsualGap, pointsCancelledEach year: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Jun 28Fri, Sat, Sun · outside the windowabout the same76.2%74.5%+1.7about the same2.40%— · 76.6 · — · 80.5
Jun 29Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the windowabout the same77.7%75.7%+2.0about the same0.80%— · — · 63.1 · 89.9
Jun 30Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window3% fewer82.7%77.4%+5.3better5.09%— · 78.2 · 83.7 · 85.7
Jul 1Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed4% fewer77.6%78.6%−1.0about the same5.03%— · 79.0 · 75.2 · 83.7
Jul 2Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu5% fewer80.0%78.1%+1.9about the same2.06%— · — · 74.4 · 84.9
Jul 3Mon, Wed, Thu, Fri7% fewer86.3%77.3%+9.0better3.13%— · 86.1 · 82.8 · 87.0
July 4Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat21% fewer85.8%77.1%+8.7better1.78%— · — · — · —
Jul 5Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun3% fewer80.1%75.8%+4.3better1.44%81.5 · — · — · 73.3
Jul 6Thu, Sat, Sun, Mon · outside the window2% fewer74.9%76.2%−1.3about the same2.01%— · — · 72.7 · 72.0
Jul 7Fri, Sun, Mon, Tue · outside the window2% fewer72.9%76.6%−3.7about the same3.95%— · 75.0 · 63.5 · 78.5
Jul 8Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed · outside the windowabout the same81.9%78.6%+3.3about the same2.65%— · 84.6 · 78.0 · 92.9

A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.

Which departure times held up

The busiest days at CMH were Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (114 departures), Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023 (121 departures), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (122 departures), Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 (123 departures), Wednesday, Jul 2, 2025 (125 departures), Thursday, Jul 3, 2025 (131 departures), Thursday, Jul 2, 2026 (127 departures), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (137 departures).

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 91.1%, 2.1 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 68.3%, still 5.7 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (10.7 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM the least (0.6 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 90.9%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 57.3%, 4.2 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+9.4 points) and those leaving 6–9 PM did worst (−4.2 points).

July 4, on-time arrival by scheduled departure time
LeavingOn time, whole windowUsualGap, pointsOn time, busiest daysUsualGap, points
5–9 AM91.1%89.0%+2.1better90.9%90.1%+0.8about the same
9 AM–12 PM88.0%87.4%+0.6about the same86.4%88.1%−1.7about the same
12–3 PM77.0%73.9%+3.1about the same77.7%73.8%+3.9about the same
3–6 PM72.4%61.7%+10.7better70.3%60.9%+9.4better
6–9 PM68.3%62.6%+5.7better57.3%61.5%−4.2about the same
9 PM–5 AM——————

Cancellations

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (13.93% of that day’s departures, 61% of the window’s cancellations).

CMH beside every covered airport

Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts CMH’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether CMH did better or worse than the network.

July 4 at CMH beside all covered airports, by year
YearCMH on timeCMH, gap from usualAll airports on timeAll airports, gap from usual
2023Jul 1–5, 202379.9%+2.373.9%+2.9
2024Jul 1–5, 202486.1%+8.182.2%+11.7
2025Jul 1–5, 202579.2%+1.573.5%+2.3
2026Jul 1–5, 202681.9%+5.773.1%+3.2

For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at CMH, or the network view.