Connections
Will your connection make it?
Tell FlyerIntel the flight bringing you in and how long your layover is. It reads that route’s own arrival history and tells you how often flights landed too late for a layover that short — and how long a layover would have to be for the risk to fall under one in twenty.
ATL → ORD, 60 minutes between flights
How often this route's arrivals leave less room than that — 18,210 flights.
On ATL → ORD, about 1 in 6 flights landed more than 30 minutes after their scheduled arrival — the margin this layover leaves once 30 minutes are set aside.
How the chance changes with the layover
Allowing 30 minutes after landing. Each minute of layover past that is a minute of delay the inbound flight can absorb.
How to read it. The curve is the chance of missing the connection at each layover length. Where it crosses a band edge is the layover that gets you under that risk.
- Low risk: under 5%, about 1 in 20 or better
- Some risk: 5% to 15%, up to about 1 in 7
- High risk: 15% to 30%, up to about 1 in 3
- Likely to miss: over 30%
The band edges are FlyerIntel’s reading of the number, not something the data measures. The chart stops at 50%.
| Layover | Chance of missing | Reads as | Margin after 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss | 0 min |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk | 15 min |
| 60 min (yours) | 17% | High risk | 30 min |
| 75 min | 12% | Some risk | 45 min |
| 90 min | 9.4% | Some risk | 60 min |
| 120 min | 6.1% | Some risk | 90 min |
| 150 min | 4.1% | Low risk | 120 min |
| 180 min | 3.1% | Low risk | 150 min |
What this measures, and what it does not
The chance is the share of ATL → ORD flights that landed more than the margin after their scheduled arrival, counted from 18,210 flights that operated between July 2023 – July 2026. It describes the inbound leg only. It does not know your outbound gate, whether the airline holds a connection on your ticket, or what the weather is doing today, and a cancelled or diverted inbound flight ends the trip a different way, which is why that rate is shown beside the chance and not inside it.
The 30 minutes you need is your assumption. It stands in for getting off the plane, the walk, and the airline’s boarding cutoff, which is commonly 10 to 15 minutes before departure. FlyerIntel has no gate or terminal data to check it against.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Arrival delay is gate arrival against scheduled gate arrival, so taxi-in is already inside it. Full route profile →